In the intricate political landscape of Gaza, support for Hamas reveals a multifaceted picture that defies simple categorization. Polling data consistently shows Hamas maintaining support around the mid-30s percentage-wise among Gazans. This figure underscores the group's tenacious grip on authority, despite its history of ruthlessly suppressing dissidents and seizing control of Gaza violently in 2007 following an electoral victory. The ongoing conflict with Israel adds another layer of complexity to Hamas's influence, as the group continues to wield significant power in Gaza, even amid the destruction caused by Israeli offensives.
Polling data indicates that up to 90% of respondents believe Hamas did not commit atrocities depicted in certain video footage, reflecting a pervasive skepticism towards external narratives. Furthermore, a significant portion of the population values governance under Islamic law, with many viewing a military solution as more viable than diplomatic efforts. This perspective resonates with the preference for a single Palestinian state governed by Islamic principles. Additionally, 36% of Gazans view "armed struggle" as the most effective means to end Israeli occupation and achieve independence.
"Hamas has only the support of a fifth of the population – a steep decline from a March 2024 PCPSR poll that showed majority support for Hamas in Gaza." – Atran
Despite this perceived decline, Hamas remains the preferred political party for 35% of respondents. However, experts caution that control does not equate to popularity. The group's ability to stage carefully choreographed handovers of Israeli hostages highlights its military prowess, reinforcing its image as a formidable force in the region.
“The level of control is not a measure of popularity.” – Hugh Lovatt
Hamas's capacity to mobilize resources is evident in its deployment of hundreds of municipal officials to clear rubble, rehabilitate clinics, reopen schools, and monitor markets. Aid workers report that many prewar contacts within the local administration have resumed their roles, further entrenching Hamas's presence in daily governance.
“If you exile or kill the leadership, you are not addressing the challenge of this limited if substantial conservative Islamist base. If you want a credible political track you need to integrate that constituency.” – Hugh Lovatt
A poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) released in September revealed 39% support among Gazans for Hamas's attacks into Israel in October 2023, which ignited the current phase of conflict. This support underscores the enduring willingness among Gazans to sacrifice for their land and sovereignty.
“Yet, the survey also indicates that Gazans – women as much as men, old and young – are willing to sacrifice for their land and sovereignty, including to fight and die, even at the cost of their own family safety and security … or the promise of a better life elsewhere.” – Atran
On the streets of Gaza, Hamas's visibility is palpable. Police officers patrol main junctions, ministries are reopening, and daily life resumes in many ways as if untouched by war.
“Hamas are pretty visible on the streets. Police are back on the beat and patrolling main junctions. Ministries are also reopening. It’s like the war never happened in some ways.” – A senior UN official
However, this normalization belies underlying tensions about governance and future leadership. Some voices within Gaza call for shared responsibility in leadership post-conflict.
“When the war stops, Hamas must not rule Gaza alone.” – Ameen
Gaza's complex political landscape remains shaped by diverse perspectives on governance, resistance, and identity. Roughly half the population believes that a military solution is more likely than a diplomatic one. This sentiment aligns with a preference for a single Palestinian state under Islamic law as the ultimate solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.