The UK government today made its biggest splash so far on its welfare reforms. For people who receive or are eligible for disability benefits, these changes will dramatically reshape their eligibility. The good news is that the latest deal – announced last Thursday – shows just how far we’ve fallen. Over half the projected £5 billion in annual savings from these reforms won’t be realized by 2029-30. This shift comes just as the government attempts to walk a fine line between budgetary restraints and public demand for changes to the welfare system.
The original plan was projected to save £4.5 billion. This would be made up almost entirely in savings from tightening the eligibility rules for the Personal Independence Payment (PIP). The amended settlement will apply to new claimants beginning in November 2026. This modification will bring effective protection to 370,000 of the 800,000 affected, as per DWP’s own impact assessment.
Thanks to the new deal, there are 2.25 million existing PIP recipients who will now be paid more. These increases will be pegged to inflationary rates. This move aims to alleviate some financial pressure on individuals reliant on these benefits, particularly as living costs continue to rise. Over a million new claimants won’t have their support halved in the most extreme cases. This amendment provides more protection to people like Wesley who are most likely to be harmed.
This shock-and-awe overnight deal is projected to come in at £2.5-3 billion. This is an astounding sum – more than 50% of the original £5 billion savings target. This transformation makes the prioritization of the federal budget a pressing question. How will it impact Chancellor’s “non-negotiable” borrowing limits? The options appear limited: either higher taxes or cuts in other areas will be necessary to compensate for the foregone savings.
The suggested changes to PIP assessments would replace the current standard with a new four-point threshold for qualifying activities. People must average a minimum of four points across one activity. This replaces the prior rule’s requirement of qualifying through a much wider variety of activities. For those requiring assistance in shampooing hair or bathing body below waist, only two points would be awarded. If you need help making sure you wash from the middle of your back to your belly button, you’ll score four points.
This revised scoring methodology is intended to make it easier to see the whole package of reforms in a more coherent way. It’s more than just a lack of effort to save money. At first, the adjustments to universal credit health assessments were expected to deliver £3 billion worth of savings by 2029-30. This new geospatial framework has the potential to radically alter those longstanding expectations.
The controversial winter fuel payment U-turn is about to add another £1.25 billion to the bill. This decision adds a new layer of complexity to the already complex financial landscape of welfare reform. The federal government needs to tread lightly through these changes, as the stakes for people who depend on these benefits are very high.
The predicted net cost of these amendments feels quite achievable too—about £2 billion, or a few hundred million pounds. It could actually turn out to be nearer £1 billion. Policymakers are taking a hard look at the lessons from welfare reform. To be fair, lawmakers are trying to balance fiscal responsibility with the needs of society’s most vulnerable members.