The NFIB Small Business Choppiness Index dropped to 98.2 in October, its second straight decrease. This month’s index drop is a good indicator of the growing uncertainty small business owners are feeling. This decline makes sentiment worse than any point since the announcement of new tariffs in April. The historic decline bodes ill for the greater small business economic picture as these mainstays of our economy continue to weather adverse conditions.
Even with the recent drop, the NFIB Small Optimism Index looks more optimistic than it did prior to the 2024 election. Which means that small business owners are still holding onto a belief that brighter days economically are coming down the pike. This optimism is counterbalanced by major obstacles that they are grappling with right now.
Surprisingly, one of the chief complaints putting a pall on small business optimism can be summed up in three words—qualified labor. All of this has left many small business owners fuming, as they have difficulty locating the skilled workforce they need to build their businesses. This new challenge greatly affects their financial outlook. This lack of experienced labor inhibits daily productivity as well as stymies the potential future growth for these businesses.
Labor concerns aren’t the only issue at stake here. Sales and profits outlook weakening. This is pushing the NFIB Small Optimism Index into deep negative territory. Chamber survey found that small businesses are struggling to maintain their revenue levels. This ongoing fight has a direct effect on their outlook about the economy. Sales are disappearing and profits are collapsing. As a result, they can be discouraged from investing in new opportunities or even expanding their operations.
The relational nature of these topics only scratches the surface of the complicated landscape small businesses must navigate. Many still cling to optimism about what lies ahead. Yet for thousands of other localities—particularly small places going through profound changes—pressing issues threaten their survival and prosperity. The recent plummet in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index underscores such continued struggles. Addressing the immediate challenges of labor shortages, record turnover, and maximizing sales performance have never been more needed.