In 2026, Social Security beneficiaries may receive a 2.7% COLA. This much anticipated increase would come thanks to the government’s most recent inflation data. This estimate came from Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. This represents a big bump up over the 2.5% no COLA adjustment that beneficiaries experienced in 2025. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior citizen advocacy group, has made a significant forecast. They project the COLA for this year to come in even a little lower, at 2.6%.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) showed a 2.5% increase over the last 12 months as of July. This percentage is important because it’s the primary factor used to calculate the annual COLA, since it captures the increase in inflation from one year to the next. The increase is meant to ensure Social Security recipients don’t lose their ability to buy basic necessities as living costs rise.
It should be reiterated that these estimates are still very early and very conservative. Two additional months of inflation data will be taken into account before the official formula COLA calculation for 2026 is finalized. Inflationary pressures like tariffs might play a role in accelerating this shift. Analysts are watching these developments with a hawk’s eye, as changes in tariff levels have the potential to change the inflation trajectory, and thus the COLA.
Mary Johnson, SENIOR POLICY ANALYST FOR AARP, ESTIMATING RAISE at 2.7%. This is great news for the people who count on Social Security to keep them financially secure. That expected increase will help alleviate some of that financial strain. It takes a more nuanced approach to the inflationary trends we’ve experienced in recent months. The 2.5% fix we’re experiencing in 2025 was due to the mechanics of the same kind of calculation based on past inflation data.
Furthermore, the technical approach to developing the COLA calculation features controversial assumptions in estimating shifts in the CPI-W, which measures earnings for a narrow set of white-collar workers. Policymakers look at these chronic trends to adjust Social Security benefits to the cost of living. Their intended promise, to give vital assistance to older Americans and people with disabilities, is kept.
With less than two months left in the window for supplemental inflation data to be reported, both beneficiaries and watchdogs are watching closely. It would be a massive change to the economic playing field. Millions of Americans depend on their Social Security benefits to make ends meet, and the impact will be devastating.