Stephen Flynn, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) at Westminster, will be focusing on the economic fallout from Brexit. He intends to raise these concerns with Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, in a long-planned meeting next week. That provides the backdrop to this conversation, which comes on the heels of a new concord announced last week by Sir Keir Starmer, leader of Britain’s Labour Party. The deal addresses key sectors such as fisheries, trade, security and defence and energy.
Flynn – Read Elon Musk’s advice to renegotiate a much better deal with the EU. This position is indicative of mounting frustration as well, particularly within the sectors most impacted by Scotland’s fishing communities. Or to consider another example, businesses of all sizes have long complained about the current trade deals, which aren’t doing enough on their behalf. Scottish voters have a long and deep-seated affinity for the EU, evidenced by 62% of Scots voting to remain in the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum. This finding is a compelling opposite to the prevailing vote across the UK, which voted to leave.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has unequivocally ruled out a new customs union with the EU being renegotiated. We hope he doesn’t hold firm as change becomes more urgent and dangerous. He agrees that the Labour government of the day is right to focus on increasing collaboration within the current settlements. They are not interested in making substantive changes to trade deals. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has taken note of the damage done by the previous Conservative administration’s agreement to the UK economy. She told me that it has done permanent harm.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has projected that the UK’s GDP could decrease by approximately 4% in the long term because of Brexit. This forecast highlights an important need for re-evaluation of trade agreements going forward, as many economic indicators remain a troubling red. Andrew Bailey has commented on Brexit’s impact, asserting that it will negatively affect economic growth “for the foreseeable future,” although he suggested that “at least partial rebalancing” may occur in the longer term.
Flynn looks forward to meeting with Bailey in the near future to address these urgent issues. How does Brexit impact Scotland and her economy? His goal, he says, is to demonstrate the “folly” of remaining outside the EU. He feels this decision has hurt all industries, but especially the fishing industry the most.
The new Labour government has set aside a $55 million emergency fund to keep fishermen afloat. This large-scale undertaking seeks to tackle these and other issues in the coming 12 years. This initiative aims to provide financial relief and bolster the fishing industry as it navigates the complexities arising from new trade regulations post-Brexit.
Rachel Reeves’ last vote to trigger Article 50 started the formal process of the UK leaving the EU. This move further complicates her position as Chancellor, ahead of opposition to any permanent changes. Critics say the discrepancy proves that the government is still deeply confused about how to chart a post-Brexit course.
Flynn is looking ahead to his debate with Bailey. In doing so, he joins a growing chorus of voices urging a rethink on the UK’s relationship with the EU. The conversation around Brexit and the discussions about transportation and climate is shifting every day. Policymakers and business executives alike are busy dispensing advice on how to address its economic impact.