So Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be meeting soon in Delhi. This unprecedented gathering represents a critical moment in their deep and long-standing alliance. Their relationship has deepened over decades, fueled by shared interests: defense, energy, and geopolitics. This is why Modi is so much engaged with Putin. All this occurs against the backdrop of Western powers—most importantly the United States—monitoring India’s buy of Russian oil with a hawkish eye.
India is now the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil. In recent months, it has drastically ramped up its Russian purchases. Western sanctions limited Russia’s ability to enter European markets. In retaliation, India wholeheartedly capitalized on the moment by increasing its own imports of heavily-discounted Russian oil, which now account for 35% of all Indian oil purchases. This savvy tactical move meets an urgent energy need for India while deepening its growing economic dependence on Russia.
The texture to this gathering is an interesting one. President Donald Trump’s administration retaliated by slapping a 25% tariff on Indian goods. They argued that India’s oil purchases were indirectly financing Russia’s military campaign. This geopolitical pressure has forced Modi to carefully navigate the strengthening ties with Russia while maintaining a balanced relationship with Western allies.
In his diplomatic triple play, Modi always brings up the need for dialogue. He thinks it’s the only serious way to resolve disputes, particularly with respect to Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Western governments have been loading on the pressure for him to publicly denounce Russia. Yet through it all, he refuses to waver in his dogged defense of Putin.
“For India, the challenge is strategic balance – protecting autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow.” – Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)
The expected outcome from the expected meeting between Modi and Putin is several agreements, particularly in the defense sector. India continues to remain deep on Russian defense platforms. The country is very interested in obtaining Russian military technology, specifically upgraded S-500 systems and the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet. Such acquisitions are vital for India’s defense strategy, especially as it looks to rapidly modernize its military capabilities.
Bilateral trade between India and Russia is doing just great! By March 2025, it’s projected to hit a whopping $68.72 billion—a dramatic increase from only $8.1 billion in 2020. India’s accelerated acquisitions of cheap Russian crude have played a huge role in spurring skyrocketing bilateral trade. This growing trade has played an important role in deepening the U.S.-Russia economic relationship.
For all these optimistic changes, Modi has to face the tricky proposition of international diplomacy. The strengthening of ties with Russia should not overshadow ongoing trade talks with the United States or partnerships with European nations. The ambassadors of Germany, France, and the UK recently collaborated on a rare joint article criticizing Russia’s stance on Ukraine, highlighting the delicate balance India must maintain.
“Putin’s visit is not a nostalgic return to Cold War diplomacy. It is a negotiation over risk, supply chains and economic insulation. A modest outcome will secure oil and defense; an ambitious one will reshape regional economics.” – Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)
In the new geopolitical reality, Modi wants to ensure that Indian goods are optimally positioned in the Russian market. This strategy is critical for India’s economic future, particularly once the conflict in Ukraine subsides and Russia reintegrates into the global economy. Challenges remain. Even in consumer-oriented retail markets, India’s presence in Russia is limited at best, with marginals showing up at trade volumes in different commodities ranging from smartphones to garments.
“Consumer-oriented and high-visibility categories remain marginal: smartphones ($75.9m), shrimp ($75.7m), meat ($63m) and garments at just $20.94m underscore India’s limited penetration in Russia’s retail markets and electronics value chains despite geopolitical churn.” – Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)
In addition, there are deeper issues at play regarding Russia’s increasingly precarious geopolitical isolation given recent developments in global politics. As Andrei Kolesnikov recently noted, Russia has made deep inroads in Asia and the Global South. Yet it does so at a time of unprecedented isolation from Europe, a sharp turn for a country that has always considered itself part of Europe.
“But now we are totally isolated from Europe. This is unprecedented. Our philosophers always said that Russia was a part of Europe. Now we’re not. This is a big failure and a big loss.” – Andrei Kolesnikov