Taiwan is a self-governing island with a population of about 23 million. Its geographic proximity to China is raising militarily important concerns. Recent provocations have included unprecedented large-scale military exercises by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in and around Taiwan. These actions have generated explosive debates within the island about its future security and ties to the United States. Taiwan’s administration has chosen not to comment on the US intervention in Venezuela. At the same time, Taiwanese citizens are making clear their overwhelming willingness to ensure that Taiwan does not become the next Venezuela.
Taiwan’s new President—Lai Ching-te (賴清德)—has long made clear his intention of standing firm in defense of the international rules-based order. His administration remains cautious about escalating tensions with China, which views Taiwan as part of its territory and a domestic political matter. Despite the lack of international recognition as a sovereign state, Taiwan has garnered a promise of military support from the US should it face aggression from China.
In fact, the recent military exercises by the PLA against Taiwan have made headlines as a show of might and alarmed many. These exercises are a signal that reunification with Taiwan has always been a part of China’s long-term goals. According to analysts, these military maneuvers underscore the growing sophistication of the Chinese military. They too call for greater transparency of US aims with respect to Taiwan.
Between these confrontations, Taiwanese activists, artists, and citizens are taking action and raising their voice. They are providing comparable perspectives on Taiwan’s security and its relationship with the United States. Some argue that Taiwan should not provoke the US since it risks harm to Taiwan. Still, some counter that the island needs to remain vigilant against an increasingly aggressive Chinese military.
“Stop linking the US actions in Venezuela to the Taiwan issue … Their actions constitute a grave violation of international law and an infringement on Venezuela’s sovereignty, whereas our situation is strictly an internal national affair. There is absolutely no ‘comparability’ in terms of nature, methods or objectives.” – A popular nationalist government affairs commentator on Weibo.
This objection is adequate. Indeed, it goes to the heart of the perception that Taiwan’s case is not Venezuela’s case at all. U.S. observers contend that this winsome U.S. approach to Venezuela would send a chilling message to China. This strategy does not address cross-strait relations in any meaningful way. Shen Dingli, a senior international relations scholar in Shanghai, stated clearly that “cross-strait relations are not international relations and are not governed by international law.”
Lin Ying Yu, associate professor at Tamkang University in Taipei, is sounding the alarm. Her intent is to bring attention to the human cost of US military actions abroad. “Why was the US military able to move in as if no one were there?” he asked, questioning the nature of international norms that allow such interventions. He further highlighted the shifting perceptions of military capabilities following various global conflicts, indicating that “everyone seemed to think that Chinese-made weapons were very impressive after the clashes between Indian and Pakistani air forces,” yet now there appears to be a different interpretation concerning their effectiveness.
Taiwan is obviously extremely sensitive to China’s military developments and attuned to the development of their capabilities as well as their plans and objectives. As Taiwanese citizens see military drills equipped with realistic simulations and bombardment shakes as a war practice to intimidate them from Beijing, worries are amplified. President Lai has been a strong proponent of resisting any form of cross-strait coercion from China. In reply, the government makes the strengthening of Taiwan’s defense systems a priority.
Sung Wen-Ti, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, noted the potential impact of US military capabilities on China’s strategy. He stated that “the US military’s capacity for a decapitation strike, especially against Venezuela’s largely Chinese defense systems, ought to provide a deterrent that makes Beijing think about putting their [military] to the test against Washington.”