Today Israel and Iran announced a ceasefire after almost two weeks of rising tensions and conflict. Yet, the air remains tense after recent claims of a ceasefire violation. The fragile ceasefire took effect just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that, “it is now in effect.” Israel contends that Iran violated the spirit of the accord by conducting a missile strike on Israel. This major military action poses legitimate questions about the durability of the truce.
Israel attacked Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities with super sonic missiles on June 13. This move made the case to mitigate what they called an “Iranian nuclear threat,” paving the way for the ceasefire. After this escalation, both sides participated in angry rhetorical escalations, raising the possibility of a larger regional conflict.
Just last week, Israel doubled down on its commitment to national security. The country’s priorities, like those of its neighbors, lie firmly on removing all threats—real or imagined—from Iran. When the Israeli government finally announced its agreement to the ceasefire, they accomplished their big goal of going after the nuclear issue first.
Field experts are watching very, very closely to see how this temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will reverberate across global oil markets. Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst, stated, “If the ceasefire is followed as announced, investors might expect the return to normalcy in oil.” That anxiety is indicative of the market’s heightened sensitivity to geopolitical tensions capable of disrupting supply and sending oil prices skyrocketing.
It is still unclear how any party will actually comply with the proposed ceasefire terms. Sachdeva added, “The extent to which Israel and Iran adhere to the recently announced ceasefire conditions will play a significant role in determining oil prices.” As this shows, even when an agreement is reached the situation is still quite in flux, which can be a significant factor in impacting expected economic forecasts.
As both countries weather this tense moment, international watch dogs will likely be on the look out for any more R2P breaches or escalations. If allowed to hold, this ceasefire will have momentous repercussions for Israel and Iran alike. It will affect global market stability and regional security in very significant ways.