As world leaders prepare for today’s NATO summit. New, important, contrary trends are manifesting globally on the security front, particularly from the UK and the US. Closer to home, the UK has released a new National Security Strategy 2025 that outlines new and old threats to the nation. Recently, former President Donald Trump raised alarm about the U.S. commitment to NATO’s collective defense guarantees. His comments alone have introduced a level of chaos that threatens the alliance’s unity.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the UK promised that a Labour government would uphold its manifesto tax pledges. At the same time, he made headlines by announcing plans to double defense spending to 2.5% of GDP. This new commitment is especially timely given the emergence of acute geopolitical tensions with both Russia and Iran. The new National Security Strategy calls attention to these fundamental realities. Starmer emphasized the shifting global landscape, stating, “The world has changed. Russian aggression menaces our continent.”
Trump’s presence at the summit is notable, especially given his recent comments about NATO’s Article Five, which outlines mutual defense obligations among member states. He challenged the very premise of article interpretation, “There’s a million definitions to Article Five, you all know that right? This egregious lack of wisdom and clarification has alarmed some European allies and raised understandable questions about the reliability of U.S. support.
In our interview, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte seemed to want to address these concerns preemptively. He boasted that it’s really quite easy to uphold your support for NATO—at full strength. Rutte is very confident that NATO’s collective power can deter any threat, especially from Russia. He stated, “It is simply unthinkable that Russia, with an economy 25 times smaller than NATO’s, should be able to outproduce and outgun us.”
In a purported text message from Rutte to Trump, he noted, “Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe, and the world. You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.” Rutte’s statements reflect an undercurrent of pessimism among NATO allies. They tout the importance of collaboration as they face off against outside attacks.
Yet all 32 NATO countries have rallied around increasing their armaments budgets. Other economists warn that this decision would lead Europe down the path of militarism, at the expense of social and environmental security. The Secretary General of NATO pointed to this joint declaration of unity in his opening remarks to a press conference. Today, major powers such as China and Russia are critically contesting the global commons. They seek to displace U.S. dominance over resources in every arena, from outer space to cyberspace.
As tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to grow, it’s possible that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with Trump on the sidelines of the summit. In fact, Zelenskyy has warned that NATO’s increase in defense spending is moving at a molasses-like pace. He cautioned that a Russian conventional attack on NATO could happen in the next five years. “We know that Russia will be capable of testing our mutual defense commitments within the next five years,” noted Ursula von der Leyen.
The forward based security infrastructure that NATO had grown accustomed to for decades can no longer be assumed. Rutte emphasized the urgency of preparedness among member states, stating, “The security situation has changed so much, and people know that when the call comes [in the event of an attack on a NATO member], you now need to deliver to the collective endeavor what you promised.”