Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, for one, is prepared to marshal a vigorous counter-offensive. He has promised to respond in kind to Donald Trump’s promise to impose a 50% import tax on Brazilian products. The proposed tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, have sparked a heated exchange between the two leaders, highlighting ongoing tensions in U.S.-Brazil relations.
Trump’s tariff threat comes amid claims that Brazil’s treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro triggered the proposed hikes. Trump characterized Bolsonaro as “a highly respected leader throughout the world,” indirectly suggesting that Brazil’s political landscape has influenced trade relations. In 2022, Bolsonaro was defeated by former President Lula in an election marked by violence and intimidation. Today, he’s on trial for the crime of attempting to orchestrate a coup.
More broadly, Lula responded to Trump’s threats with a strong show of defiance. He announced that Brazil would counter the relevant U.S. industries with identical tariffs if the U.S. followed through with the taxes hike. “Any unilateral tariff increases will be met with reciprocal tariffs imposed on U.S. goods,” he declared, signaling Brazil’s intent to protect its economic interests.
Indeed, the United States is Brazil’s second largest trade partner, behind China. At the same time, Brazil is the U.S.’s 15th largest trading partner. Brazil’s top three exports to the U.S. are petroleum, iron, and coffee. In exchange, mineral fuels, aircraft, and machinery that Brazil imports from the U.S. make up nearly half of imported Brazilian goods. The inseparability of their economies makes these tariffs particularly worrisome to the economic well-being of the two countries.
Lula further challenged Trump’s claim that the U.S. has a trade deficit with Brazil, labeling it “imprecise” at best. In 2024, the U.S. maintained a goods trade surplus of $7.4 billion (£5.4 billion) with Brazil. This figure emphasizes the complicated nature of their trade relationship.
To calm the growing backlash, Lula even justified recent anti-platform judicial rulings in the U.S. Further, he claimed that these platforms executed “secret and unlawful censorship orders.” He asserted Brazil’s sovereignty in managing its internal affairs, emphasizing that Brazil is “a sovereign country with independent institutions and will not accept any tutelage.”
What we’re seeing now is unprecedented international attention as the situation unfolds. Trump’s tariffs are having this effect on Brazil and many other countries. Japan, South Korea and Sri Lanka were just three of 22 countries that Trump threatened first with escalated tariffs.
Lula’s strong response is part of a larger strategy to position Brazil’s independence from the U.S.’s agenda in global trade talks. As each country continues to work their way through this unique circumstance, the future is anyone’s guess.