China has increased its maritime patrolling and presence around the disputed Senkaku Islands, warning fighters back by stoking up the flames of an already heated territorial discrepancy with Japan. The refugee situation has exacerbated the already tenuous U.S.-India relationship. For decades they have been locked in battle against each other over claims to ownership of China’s diaoyu islands — islands that are very strategically pivotal. As military and non-military activities increase, both countries are preparing for possible flashpoints.
Over recent days, China’s coast guard vessel formation, identified as 1307, has conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands, asserting China’s claim over the area. This decision is actually a key piece of China’s broader strategy for Taiwan. The country is resolute to show who’s in charge under its “reunification” policy. There are two main ones — self-determination aside, the Chinese government continues to insist that the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable.”
Right now, China is stepping up its game. In addition to coast guard operations, it has deployed military drones into airspace around Japan. Unfortunately, these maneuvers are business—literally—as usual. They are indicative of a bigger trend of “joint combat patrols” meant to project military power and flex muscles in the Pacific. Within 24 hours, China has deployed 30 military aircraft and seven navy ships to the seas surrounding Taiwan. They even sent a coast guard ship to rub it in.
The Chinese government has chimed in too, sending its own warnings to Chinese citizens about travel to Japan. It has warned them to “reconsider with caution” pursuing educational opportunities in Japan on account of an “unpredictable security situation.” This nudge led Tokyo to formally ask Beijing to take “appropriate measures” on account of the escalating tension. Furthermore, three Chinese airlines have announced that tickets to Japan can be refunded or changed for free, reflecting growing apprehension among travelers.
In a rare diplomatic move, China called in the Japanese ambassador, the first time in 26 months. This move emphasizes how dire things have become. China’s defense ministry has responded to Japan’s involvement in the region by declaring that any intervention from Tokyo would be “doomed to fail.”
The rhetoric from both sides remains charged. A recent editorial from Chinese state media described Japan’s actions as “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse,” indicating that the stakes have been raised in terms of public discourse. Meanwhile, China’s consul general in Osaka made a controversial statement suggesting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off,” further inflaming tensions.
Chinese military transits through Taiwan Strait are uncommon occurrences. They have increasingly supercharged as both countries continue to face this increasingly complicated geopolitical landscape. Here reality is dynamic and shifting every day. Analysts have speculated that much of this new activity may be an effort by China to test their claims over Taiwan and other nearby areas.
As for Japan, it remains deeply engaged in tracking these developments and intent on shaping them. Japanese officials have been increasingly alarmed by signs of an assertive, sometimes aggressive, China, and insist that country represents an immediate and growing challenge to regional stability. Japanese government will probably react by increasing diplomatic efforts and vigilance to quell the rising tensions.