Iran, home to nearly 90 million people, is at a fateful historical juncture. The nation faces increasingly severe crisis with the US and its allies. Recent developments though suggest a possible turning point in regional dynamics. Iran’s military provocations and escalation of its defiance of curbs on its nuclear activity come at a time of increasing pressure from the outside. Experts warn that the consequences of these moves could be deep and long-lasting.
Iran’s geopolitical environment has grown in complexity. Its complicatedness Cooperation Its alliances with powerful nations like China and Russia, as well as close ties with multiple countries in the global south. These relationships place Iran’s leaders in an advantageous position as a check on American power in the region. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has reportedly declared a fatwa prohibiting any such program. This has not stopped the country from being accused of seeking nuclear weapons, something Iran has always strenuously rejected.
The 2015 nuclear accord is the focal point of these tensions. President Barack Obama’s legacy-defining Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement became a huge international dealmaker. This comprehensive agreement sought to limit Iran’s pathway toward developing a nuclear weapon in return for sanctions relief. Former President Donald Trump had the United States withdraw from the accord in 2018. This action sparked further hostilities, including severing of all diplomatic relations.
Iran has long made itself patently clear when it comes to responding to such U.S. provocations. Second, they claim their ability to strike back if hit. An unintended consequence of the nation’s military strategy is to put U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf on the frontlines. Almost 40,000 American troops are currently deployed to these strategically vital posts. Further, Iran’s missile strikes into Israel in the spring of 2023 signal its intent to project military power outside of its borders.
Iran’s economic conditions complicate this narrative. As much as the nation has military ambitions, it wrestles with a history of mismanagement and corruption that has left many of its current citizens disillusioned and angry. Iranian-aligned groups, most notably the Houthis in Yemen, have shown their goodwill by recently threatening to re-launch strikes on maritime traffic in the Red Sea. This latest move drives home how connected these regional conflicts are.
The Fordow nuclear enrichment facility continues to operate, alarming many international observers and adding to fears over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The other big issue here is the facility’s role in the dialogue on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. It underscores the nation’s ability to quickly ramp up enrichment to weapons-grade levels. Iran’s leadership has been clear that it will not negotiate under duress. Pressure for negotiations is mounting, including from the leader of the British Labour Party, Keir Starmer.
Iran could decide to do so—again, like North Korea—to obtain a deterrent against what it sees as threats. If realized, this high-risk gambit could dramatically change the security calculus in the Middle East and far beyond.