As the international community contemplates its response to Iran’s nuclear aspirations, it must consider the new military paradigm established by recent American expeditions. The Trump administration has understandably celebrated the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as a major success. They claim there’s “new intelligence” to support this claim. According to numerous reports, Iran’s nuclear program was only set back by a few months. This precarious state of play leads to critical questions regarding the intended, and unintended, long-term outcomes of these actions.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has rejected an “hourglass approach” to assessing the timeline for Iran’s potential resurgence in nuclear capabilities. To have the correct assessments, we need inspectors on the ground, these nuclear sites, said IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi. He stated, “I don’t want to give the impression that it’s been lost or hidden,” underscoring the importance of transparency in monitoring Iran’s activities.
In the wake of the U.S. strikes, Iranian authorities have intensified their domestic security crackdown. This strong response followed the use of 14 GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs on important facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Esfahan. According to Iranian media, Iran’s intelligence services have detained 26 people, claiming that they had ties to Israel. This crackdown responds to increasing anxieties over any opposition to the government’s actions. So far, even though the anger of the people is universal, large protests have not materialized.
Former President Donald Trump asserted that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been destroyed and stated, “If the Iranians chose to rebuild, they would have to rebuild all three facilities entirely, which would likely take years to do.” He pointed out that negotiations with Iran are not needed anymore as their infrastructure has been destroyed beyond repair.
The Trump administration’s optimistic narrative contrasts with a leaked intelligence assessment that reveals Tehran’s nuclear program has been delayed rather than dismantled. According to former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, “several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.” This begs the critical question. Have the U.S. follies actually prevented Iran’s nuclear progress, or have they just purchased a few extra months of diversion?
That cyber military campaign had the intended goal of crippling Iran’s nuclear capabilities. According to some analysts and exiled opposition members, the dissidents’ goal was to ignite a popular, mass uprising against the Islamic Republic. The expected tsunami of clamor from those workers has not arrived. Many Iranians continue to express their dissatisfaction with the government without any organized large-scale demonstrations emerging.
In addition, the U.S. military’s proclamations of success have been met with public skepticism from outside the Beltway. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump, noted there was “no indication that that enriched uranium was moved prior to the strikes,” addressing concerns about potential nuclear fallout from the attacks. She added, “As for what’s on the ground right now, it’s buried under miles and miles of rubble because of the success of these strikes on Saturday evening.”
Though the Trump administration is celebrating military victory, Iranian officials seem to be doubling down on their crackdown on security forces. First, because they face real or imagined external threats, they prioritize internal stability. As a result, this ongoing law enforcement emphasis has resulted in mass arrests and militarization of law enforcement worldwide.
Trump’s language suggests a more specific direction in U.S.-Iran negotiations. He indicated that the next U.S.-Iran rounds of talks could bring back to life the negotiations that were cut short amid this month’s short-lived hostilities. He argued that the need for negotiations was less urgent now, because of Iran’s weakened condition.
“They’re not going to be doing it anyway. They’ve had it” – Donald Trump
As each nation transitions to a tense post-military engagement, both sides gauging their newfound strategic status. Grossi’s remarks highlight a continuing need for international oversight in Iran’s nuclear developments: “In any case, the technological knowledge is there and the industrial capacity is there. That, no one can deny. So we need to work together with them.”