Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that his country is living through one of the most difficult periods in its history. In just a few days, global leaders will be convening at the G20 summit in Johannesburg. Most prominently, they’ll tackle the continuing war waged by Russia against Ukraine and how best to achieve a lasting settlement and peace. In this context, key allies are preparing to vote on a controversial US-drafted peace plan. This plan has broken new ground and raised the level of support but the level of skepticism from all stakeholders.
Keir Starmer, leader of the UK Labour Party, plans to meet with Ukraine’s allies during the summit to reinforce support for the US proposal. Yet, counter to expectations, Zelenskyy has been sounding alarm bells about what it would mean to accept the plan. He cautioned that acceptance of such terms would be a betrayal, which would leave Ukraine “lonely, without freedom, dignity and justice.” These, admittedly, are pressing discussions. Without such a move, Zelenskyy cautioned, Ukraine could lose the limited—and shrinking—support it still receives from the United States.
In an unusual statement, ex-US President Donald Trump has urged Zelenskyy to agree to the peace proposal before Thursday. He thinks this timeline is “reasonable.” Throughout this process, the Trump administration has made it clear that there is no wiggle room on the details of the settlement they are proposing. This deepens fears inside Ukraine about the effects of accepting a plan that is perceived to put the onus on it to accept a bad plan.
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, claimed that a 28-point plan “could form the basis of a final peace settlement.” He criticized Ukraine and its European allies, stating, “Ukraine is against it. Apparently, Ukraine and its European allies are still under illusions and dream of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield.” His remarks reveal a long-held delusion in the Kremlin that someday soon, Ukraine will crack under the pressure of Russian barbarism.
While the G20 meeting itself happens, Ukraine’s partners will be meeting informally around these discussions. They will advocate for an immediate, unconditional, and total ceasefire and demand clear paths to credible peace talks producing sustainable peace. The cost of inaction is tremendous. Countering expectations that North Korean troops in the conflict would incur large losses, reports state that these forces have largely avoided high casualties. This national dynamic only compounds the uncertainty surrounding the potential for another government shutdown.
US Vice President JD Vance stated that ending the war must prioritize Ukrainian sovereignty in any settlement. He re-emphasized that the solution needs to be mutually agreeable for Russia and Ukraine. He ridiculed the notion that simply increasing military aid or imposing additional sanctions on Russia would lead to Ukraine’s victory. He termed such beliefs a “fantasy.” This feeling casts some doubts on the achievability of a sustainable peace.
Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, warned that Europe faces an existential threat from Russia’s war against Ukraine. She reiterated that all parties seek a cessation of violence. She cautioned that the manner in which the conflict ends is equally important. “Russia has no legal right whatsoever to any concessions from the country it invaded,” she stated, emphasizing that ultimately, the terms of any agreement should be determined by Ukraine.