Venezuela is caught in the middle as the United States ratchets up its attack on the Maduro regime. According to the Venezuelan government, the country is in a state of “absolute calm, peace, and stability.” In sharp contrast, the U.S. State Department has called for American citizens to depart Venezuela without delay, issuing a security alert just last week. This shocking double standard begs the question, what is really going on in our country.
The Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has vehemently rejected the security alert, suggesting it is based on “fabricated accounts aimed at creating a perception of risk that does not exist.” What’s more, reports indicate that armed members of pro-regime militias, known as colectivos, are currently manning roadblocks. They are canvassing vehicles to look for any indication that a person might be a U.S. citizen or a supporter of the U.S.
In related news, commercial international flights from Venezuela have recently restarted, but not without a heavy dose of drama. The policies and actions of the U.S. government have played a huge role in sparking dramatic shifts in alliances and relationships within Latin America. Remarkably, one of the few countries to actively and regularly provide security services for past Venezuelan kleptocratic dictators, Cuba, is no longer providing these services. Donald Trump emphasized this shift when he stated, “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” He called on Cuba to “cut a deal” with the U.S. while it is still “not too late.”
The backdrop of Trump’s comments comes as the U.S. and Caracas have been quietly negotiating a $2 billion deal. Under this deal, the United States would gain access to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. The revenue from this transaction would be placed into DoD-controlled accounts overseen by the U.S. Treasury. This little-known financial maneuver could be a huge victory for both countries. As Venezuela continues to make headway in stabilizing its economy, the U.S. is making efforts to shore up its energy supplies.
Delcy Rodríguez, now Venezuela’s interim president after the removal of Nicolás Maduro by military forces. As the situation evolves, U.S. Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart has voiced his belief that the regime in Havana is nearing its end, suggesting a potential shift in power dynamics in the region.
Trump commented on the current state of security personnel in Venezuela: “Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week’s USA attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years.” This declaration highlights the incendiary climate in which these global antagonisms take place.
Cuba’s withdrawal from its security role in Venezuela raises disquieting questions about the risks for regional instability. The Venezuelan government has asserted its position as the sole guarantor of “the legitimate monopoly of force and the tranquility of the Venezuelan people.” Yet, this announcement could not be more disingenuous given the ongoing violence and civil disorder caused by pro-regime militias and forces.
The recent conflict has claimed numerous lives, including those of Venezuelan and Cuban security personnel during a U.S. operation that led to Maduro’s capture. This violent past further complicates any diplomatic future as each nation struggles with its own narrative.
As these dangerous escalations continue at the risk of armed conflict, the path for better U.S.-Venezuela relations remains uncertain. An agreement allowing Venezuela to safely sell oil could provide much-needed economic lifelines to impoverished Venezuelans. Others are still deeply unconvinced of the country’s prospects for stability, democracy and governance.