Additionally, recent escalations between India and Pakistan have added to the geopolitical tensions in South Asia. This set of circumstances has focused international eyes on the region’s deep military coordination and alliances. With over 60% of China’s arms exports going to Pakistan from 2020 to 2024, the dynamics of this conflict are closely intertwined with China’s military interests.
No country emerged as a more important source of military support for Islamabad since the Cold War’s end than China. In one of the most alarming, but perhaps less noticed, moves, Pakistan recently rolled out Chinese-built J10-C strike fighters in exchanges with the Indian Air Force. India has recently declared that it conducted airstrikes against nine specific locations inside Pakistan. These strikes deep into territories that India calls Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian military claimed these retaliatory strikes were successful in pre-empting specific terrorist attacks planned against India.
Just last month, militants carried out a successful suicide attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The attack – a mass shooting at a church — left 26 victims — including a pregnant woman — dead. As the intense conflict erupted, India aggressively rebutted the claims that its jets had been shot down in the operations. They called those claims “dis-information.” Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, jubilantly boasted that five Indian Air Force jets had been downed. They were trying to breach Pakistani airspace when this occurred.
This recent diplomatic alignment between China and Pakistan has been long-standing, as the two countries formalized their partnership in 1951, marked by crucial military collaboration. This relationship has uniquely positioned Pakistan to strengthen its own defense. Experts point out that China’s help has resulted in important successes.
David Roche, an expert in defense analysis, stated, “The rise in China defense stocks probably reflects the view that if the India-Pakistan war escalates, China will arm Pakistan and replace any losses.” Space policy expert and new president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) defense and security department Seth Jones couldn’t agree more. He raised concerns about the increasing military relationship between China and Pakistan.
“China and Pakistan have long standing political ties. They’ve had long standing economic ties, and in particular, over the last several years, they’ve had deepening military ties.” – CSIS’ Seth Jones
The current escalation has produced a much more immediate effect on Chinese defense stocks. Shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft even more micro, were up 17.05%! That leap reflects investor enthusiasm for China’s military exports amid the regional militarization that accompanies increasing tensions. Yang, a defense analyst, suggests that this conflict serves as a “positive testament to the quality of Chinese-made arms” due to the performance of Pakistani military assets against India’s aircraft.
While it remains to be seen how this plays out, experts say the ball is now in Pakistan’s court to determine what steps it will take from here. Jones emphasized, “[It’s up to Pakistan] whether it wants to respond more to the Indian strikes, or whether the potential shooting down of Indian aircraft was a good enough victory.”