The narrow strait between the Sultanate of Oman and Iran is likely the world’s most essential maritime chokepoint. In recent weeks, it has transformed into the epicenter of discontent as ultra-conservative Iranian lawmakers call for its immediate shuttering. This important strategic gateway lies only 55 kilometers at its narrowest point. It’s a vital jugular of global oil transit, with 20 million barrels of oil transiting through it every day — more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply. This critical route transports enormous amounts of liquefied natural gas. This further highlights its indispensable role in global energy security.
As geopolitical tensions continue to deepen in the region, Iran’s leaders have few avenues left to respond to what they see as aggressions against their territory. One of these dangers is the possibility for Iranian military forces to target commercial shipping vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. The economic impact of reckless actions like these could be catastrophic. What we are likely to experience is an initial jump in oil prices that will induce inflation in America.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would impact global oil supplies. Gulf Arab states would be forced to intervene to protect their economic lifelines, bringing them into direct conflict with Iran. The consequences of such a step would be significant, including increased military involvement in the region.
Iran has…
…suffered a loss of influence over regional militias, it retains an impressive military capacity. This includes a large and lethal array of shorter-range missiles and drones. These assets should be focusedly deployed nearby the Strait should Tehran decide to retaliate in kind.
In recent statements, Abu Ali al-Askari, commander of Kata’ib Hezbollah, remarked on the potential ramifications of attacking US interests in the region, stating that operations “will become akin to duck-hunting grounds.” This gruesome reminder underscores how dangerous the military presence in such a high-traffic area can be.
The US is surging naval assets and augmenting air defenses in the region. This combined defense strategy will ensure the waterway is always a hard target for any attackers. Such precautionary measures are indicative of Washington’s determination to uphold freedom of navigation and support stability in global oil markets.
Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warned that any military action taken by Iran would have “everlasting consequences,” emphasizing the seriousness with which Iran views its strategic position in the Strait. This mix of incendiary rhetoric and military showmanship further complicates an already fraught situation.
Iranian hardliners continue to advocate for hostile actions towards the Strait. It’s not clear that these strategies will do Iran any good in the long run. The potential for escalating into a wider conflagration would more than offset any short-term benefits of sinking shipping traffic.