Taiwan is quickly becoming the epicenter of an escalating geopolitical crisis. China’s military might is on the rise, and its government leaders are notching up threats while telegraphing their plans to take over the self-ruling island. The current situation in Taiwan raises important and urgent questions about America’s role in defending Taiwan, and what that means for regional stability.
Taiwan, a small self-governing island off the coast of China, is seen by China as a once-stolen sovereign territory. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has for decades explicitly framed a goal of unification as including bringing Taiwan firmly under its control. President Xi Jinping views this unification as a key part of his legacy. Recent scientific and pandemic developments underscore the global urgency for this ambitious goal. News media have recently reported that Xi has ordered his military commanders to be ready for an invasion as early as 2027.
Chinese collaboration on military infrastructure has vastly grown just in the last 3 years, providing the capability to rapidly launch an invasion of Taiwan. The Chinese armed forces have a formidable series of amphibious landing craft, paratroopers, and an increasingly sophisticated and powerful series of air combat and missile forces. Each of these factors has the potential to make a D-day-style massive invasion of the island possible. Such a development would send shockwaves through Taipei and Washington alike.
With Chinese ships and aircraft regularly violating them, Taiwan’s borders are more under siege than ever. This bellicose tone is backed up by massive military drills widely seen by experts as “rehearsals” for an invasion. The CCP’s control hinges on economic success and shared prosperity rather than democratic elections, which further complicates the situation as it seeks to maintain internal stability amid economic struggles.
Indeed, China’s economy is struggling with soft post-COVID growth and high unemployment, particularly among young people. Today, Beijing is under enormous economic stress. To shift attention from these domestic shortcomings, it will likely double down on Taiwan with more aggressive military posturing. The United States has a contentious, yet interdependent, relationship with China. China hawks are often quick to ring the alarm about China’s military exercises in the Pacific.
Honestly speaking, under former President Donald Trump, U.S. policy towards Taiwan became more assertive. Critics today understand this development to be a shift from “strategic ambiguity” to strategic cowardice. Under these circumstances, Trump’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense warrants questioning. His unilateral, arbitrary imposition of punitive tariffs on essentially all Chinese exports to the U.S. threatens at least 9 million U.S. manufacturing jobs. Additionally, these tariffs extended to Taiwan, as Trump criticized the island for allegedly monopolizing the semiconductor market at the expense of American jobs.
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te recently called China a “hostile foreign force.” He has been busy implementing strategies to prevent foreign sabotage and espionage. He has been firmly focused on improving Taiwan’s asymmetric defense capabilities ahead of expected aggression from Beijing. The consensus in Washington is split on how much the U.S. should militarily defend Taiwan.
“Instead of clarifying its commitment to defend Taiwan, Washington should … downplay the importance of keeping the island out of Beijing’s hands.” – Jennifer Kavanagh and Stephen Wertheim
That disagreement in opinion is a sign of deeper worries about what such a direct U.S. military response could mean. With every step as tensions escalate, consequences for Taiwan and the United States become greater. The clock is ticking against the backdrop of Xi Jinping’s possible timeline for moving on Taiwan 2027, the need for a diplomatic resolution is urgent.