As the war drags on, the United States is considering a highly controversial proposal to concede Crimea to Russia. If approved, this decision would meaningfully change the calculus of the brutal war raging in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated an openness to freezing existing battle lines. In return, he claims to be seeking several concessions, including official recognition of Russian control over Crimea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has firmly rejected any notion of acknowledging the annexation, stating that Ukraine “will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea.”
The U.S. recognition of Crimea would undoubtedly trigger a massive domestic political firestorm in Ukraine. Zelenskyy emphasized the constitutional implications of such recognition, asserting, “There’s nothing to talk about here. This is against our constitution.” His hawkish position points to a hardwired national desire to never give any territory to Russia, even if Ukraine can prevail.
In recent discussions, JD Vance confirmed that the U.S. aims to “freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today,” which may include formal acknowledgment of Russian control over Crimea. This proposal leaves out a number of other Kremlin requests. It fails to mention any limits on the size of the Ukrainian military or the number of foreign troops located in Ukraine.
Putin’s government is working hard to force U.S. acceptance of Russia’s claims over Crimea. They view it as an essential component of any peace deal. A senior source in the Kremlin told this reporting outlet that “this is the opportunity to reach an agreement” between Russia and Ukraine. If passed, this deal might lead to a permanent and full resolution of that long-standing conflict.
The situation remains complicated. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, reiterated Russia’s opposition to the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine, stating, “Russia is still against the presence of European peacekeepers.” As we have discussed, there are increasing signals from senior Russian officials that they won’t even attend talks. They stop playing if you start talking about a European peacekeeping force.
Though a possible agreement could be forthcoming, the exact terms are undisclosed. Meanwhile, Ukraine is on the verge of receiving a robust security guarantee from a cadre of European countries. This support is crucial to strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities against continued, unprovoked aggression from Russia. Concessions for Russia could include sanctions relief for its energy sector, enabling the Kremlin to increase vital revenue flows.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump was deeply offended by Zelenskyy’s desire to use force to retake Crimea. He described them as “very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia” and questioned why Ukraine did not take action to reclaim Crimea when it was initially annexed by Russia eleven years ago. Trump remarked, “Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory, but if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired?”
As the war continues to heat up, the prospects only get dimmer for Ukraine. Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine “can have peace or fight for another three years before losing the whole country,” highlighting the urgency for a diplomatic resolution. The stakes are high as both sides plunge into these intricate negotiations. Each side of the negotiation comes with their own list of asks and deal-breakers.