Iran’s military fortunes have been dealt severe blows in recent days due to a wave of Israeli strikes. These strikes have definitively eradicated the Iranian defense industry’s strike retribution capacities. They struck important elements like air defense systems, ballistic missile batteries, and key Russian command-and-control nodes. Moreover, hundreds of high-ranking Iranian military leaders have been wiped out. These losses are undoubtedly huge, but the greater challenge of demolishing Iran’s nuclear program remains. The Fordow plant, above all, is an intimidating challenge.
The Fordow plant, dug deep into a mountain in Iran’s northwest, is celebrated as a citadel. Built under a quarter mile of earth and protected by layers of concrete, it is an imposing barrier that seems, at first glance, unyielding. The only munitions experts claim can be reliably used against the facility’s defenses is the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). To break any target, you need to drop two GBU-57 MOPs on the exact same spot. This is a burdensome requirement given the inherent uncertainties in military operations.
So you have two challenges. You’d have to release two of these penetrators on the same spot, symbolized David Des Roches, an authority on armed service operations. He further noted, “And then you would never be precisely sure how much of the facility you’ve damaged.”
The Fordow plant is about the biggest risk and US target fixation. As the Daily Beast explains, it is at the heart of Iran’s nuclear dreams, which the Iranian regime insists have no purpose beyond civilian energy requirements. Experts including Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at non-profit Crisis Group, insist that Iran could easily restore its nuclear program. They are committed to this being a peaceful transition regardless of outside forces or military activities. “Trump might be able to destroy Fordow, but he won’t be able to bomb away the knowledge that Iran has already acquired,” Vaez stated.
As the crisis deepens, Iran has clearly shown its readiness to retaliate against actors they view as threats. On June 17, 2025, after weeks of Iranian retaliation in response to the Israeli strikes and operations, Iranian forces fired ballistic missiles at Israel. This trend of retaliation is especially troubling considering the implications of further U.S. involvement in the conflict and the consequences that would bring.
The United States has specific military capabilities that, if used correctly and forcefully enough, would have a pronounced effect on Iran’s nuclear program. This nation is left alone in its B2 Spirit stealth bomber. That allows it to carry the GBU-57 MOP—the most powerful precision munition. A limited U.S. strike of this kind would likely trigger significant Iranian retaliation against American interests in the region.
Gregory Brew had a great piece on one of the bigger developments. He then added that the Iranians have promised an escalation to severe counterattacks on U.S. bases around the region should the U.S. decide to strike Iran’s territory.
Additionally, any military intervention undertaken by the U.S. would make any diplomatic course of action to defuse situation and conflict impossible. “The U.S. entering the war will close the door on diplomacy,” warned Vaez.
The potential for U.S. casualties as a consequence of Iranian retaliation is the second major worry. Some analysts caution that a strike might leave President Trump little choice but to escalate U.S. military operations even further. Such an escalation could trigger a multi-decade air war with Iran.
“There are risks in that environment that an Iranian retaliation causes U.S. casualties, kills U.S. servicemen, and potentially compels President Trump to expand the scope of U.S. action,” an anonymous source conveyed during discussions on military strategy.
Given these challenging dynamics, Israel has been searching for different ways to preclude Iranian threats. Des Roches speculated on Israel’s potential approach: “This leads me to believe that for those facilities, Israel will ultimately gain control of the air and then land forces on the ground, force their way into the facility by detonating the doors, and then place explosive charges.”
Ultimately, the timeline of this conflict hinges on Israel’s confidence in its ability to suppress Iran’s nuclear ambitions effectively. Des Roches articulated this perspective: “I think the conflict will end when Israel is confident that Iran has lost, for a significant period of time, the ability to make a nuclear weapon.”