The Great Resignation, which spurred unprecedented job mobility across the United States in 2021 and 2022, appears to be reversing. A new survey released last week from the New York Federal Reserve reveals an alarming trend. Meanwhile, worker confidence in finding a new job has nosedived to a new record low. These sobering results from a recent survey indicate that when you lose your job, you have just a 44.9% probability of securing a new one. This is a significant drop of 5.8 percentage points from last month and is the lowest reading since the survey started in June of 2013.
During The Great Resignation, an estimated 4.5 million workers quit their jobs each month. This great resignation was precipitated by an extreme labor supply/demand mismatch. At one point there were over two open jobs for every jobless worker. This wealth of opportunity meant employees were just a few clicks away from exploring their next opportunity. That may have been the case before, but the tide has turned with economic uncertainties on the horizon.
At the same time, the survey findings indicate increasing reticence among employers to change their hiring practices. Lingering worries about inflation and the pace of growth has left many businesses (especially smaller ones) fearful of expanding their payrolls. The most recent data paints an unequivocal picture of concern. It fell to 3.2 million in July, a decrease of more than 5 percent versus the same time in 2024. These data paint a picture of a very tight labor market and many workers are using this opportunity to make moves they’ve long put off.
Additionally, the survey pointed out a growing belief that unemployment rates will rise over the next 12 months. In August, that expectation increased to 39.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over July and above the 12-month average. This sudden change in how workers view their jobs causes anxiety and makes workers reluctant to quit. They want more stability than taking chances with job search.
With the Great Resignation now in reverse, impacting labor conditions across America’s cities and regions, that’s changed, too. Previously, employees would quit their jobs to seek out better offers. Job openings are disappearing fast, and anxiety over a difficult job market is setting in. These factors have completely changed the employment landscape.