As the geopolitical landscape shifts, China has emerged as a formidable player in Europe, presenting an economically successful authoritarian model that appeals to certain factions within the continent. This development raises key questions about the impact of China’s growing influence. It’s especially timely due to its opportunistic ties with Russia and the ongoing crisis with the United States.
China’s distinctive governance model—merging economic dynamism with an authoritarian political system—has added to the lustre of this success. This approach still resonates with and continues to inspire major illiberal movements all throughout Europe. This appeal is especially striking across the political spectrum that otherwise condemns procedural democracy and looks for ways to undermine or replace liberal democracy. While China surely does pull these authoritarian and illiberal forces with the strength of its illiberalism, it is not only doing that. These may pose existential threats to the future of democratic governance across Europe.
Historically, China’s interactions with European nations have largely depended on the dynamics of Washington’s approach to Beijing. The U.S. has taken a number of recent L’s in its trade war with China. In the meantime, China has proven quite adept at staying one step ahead in the game. That relative success has greatly changed the balance of power. Now, China has freed up its relationships and strategies in Europe without having to go through American approval.
Once considered an exclusively economic project, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has grown more overtly strategic as the years have rolled on. At first, individuals viewed it as an opportunity for significant investment and infrastructure development across Europe. More importantly, though, it serves as a tool for China to expand its reach and redefine economic dependencies. In cultivating deeper relations across the board via this initiative, China seeks to reinforce its position as a counterweight to U.S. interests.
The terrible war in Ukraine that Russia started last year has given China even more leverage. The war has been a huge boon to the country. It has purchased large quantities of discount Russian oil and gas at the same time deepening its strategic ties with Ukraine and Russia. While China promotes its position as neutral—supporting the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity—it has always voted with Moscow in reality. This duality complicates Europe’s response to China’s influence, with European nations navigating their own economic interests against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions.
China’s support for Russia extends beyond the economic arena. It further includes requiring the export of dual-use technology that bolsters Moscow’s military capabilities. The military support underscores the increasingly close relationship between China and Russia. Under Xi Jinping, a “no-limits” friendship with Vladimir Putin has crystallized. This budding partnership further enhances China’s role in global politics. At the same time, it is sounding dire warnings to European leaders about the disastrous effects these kinds of alliances could bring.
Within Europe, China’s closest partners are Hungary, Slovakia, and Serbia. These countries are examples of a dangerous, rising tide of illiberal governance that finds inspiration in China’s model. The alignment of these countries with Beijing’s interests raises alarms regarding the future of democratic institutions in Europe and highlights the risks posed by China’s expanding footprint.
China does not openly back far-right forces abroad, nor does it attempt to actively export its own political system. Its impact usually emboldens the very same actors pursuing illiberal political agendas within European member states. This relationship, positive but small, affects policy making in a subtle but powerful way. As these factions gain traction, they can quickly chip away at the norms that uphold democracy.
By doing so, China could prove essential to tempering Russia’s destabilizing behavior. This involvement further complicates the dynamics of China’s influence on European security issues. This action is meant to increase pressure on Moscow to moderate its more aggressive impulses. The reality is that it’s motivated more by strategic interests than a true interest in European stability.
The linking of China’s economic goals with its political aims creates a complex set of challenges for Europe. Around the world, countries are stepping up to compete with authoritarian China and Russia’s challenge. Yet at the same time, they’re grappling with their own internal divisions that external forces would only inflame. The question remains: can Europe afford to navigate this complex landscape without compromising its democratic principles?