Under Xi Jinping, China is remaking its military at a fast pace. This decision has garnered international focus, especially as the island-nation continues to bolster its defenses against a possible air and land invasion from China by 2027. China is now the world’s fourth largest arms exporter. Most notably, it has deepened its bilateral defense cooperation with Pakistan, funneling more than 55 percent of its arms exports to the country. This collaboration was recently highlighted in the context of China’s provision of J-10C jets to Pakistan. These jets, armed with Chinese PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, fought their way against Indian forces.
The recent military engagement showcased the J-10C’s capabilities, marking the first time the PL-15 missiles were utilized in combat scenarios. This incident serves as a critical test for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and enhances China’s reputation as a formidable arms manufacturer on the global stage.
China’s asymmetric military growth is intended to deter aggressive moves in the region, especially towards Taiwan. Analysts warn that China expects U.S. military assets to be drawn in to protect Taiwan in any miscalculation conflict. This expectation underwrites much of China’s own contingency planning. The ramifications of this planning go far beyond Taiwan’s borders, impacting regional power dynamics that include India and Pakistan.
In a display of diplomatic support, China’s Vice-Foreign Minister Sun Weidong recently met with Pakistan’s Ambassador to China, Khalil Hashmi. In their recent dialogue, Sun made clear that China is dedicated to promoting peace between Pakistan and India. He remarked that, “China would like to see and support Pakistan and India implement a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire.” China stands ready to work with all the parties to keep playing a constructive role in this aspect.
Pakistan’s operational use of J-10C jets offers Beijing significant insights. These behind-the-scenes tips shed light on what these jets are like to fly in actual combat environments. Military analysts note that the operational success of these jets against Indian aircraft is proof that Chinese weaponry is superior to their competitors. Siemon Wezeman, an expert on arms transfers, noted, “Any state producing or buying weapons is keen to see how the product does in real conflict. Tests and exercises go furthest to demonstrate most capabilities of new weapons, but the ultimate test is often in combat.”
The incident has prompted a considerable overestimate of China’s military capabilities. Shu Hsiao-Huang remarked, “We may need to reassess the PLA’s air combat capabilities, which may be approaching or even surpassing the level of U.S. air power deployments in East Asia.” This newfound appreciation for defense might lead to unexpected consequences with long-term effects on regional security and defense strategies.
As Andrew Small noted, such victories add to the contagious effect of China’s military support for its allies. “A good performance demonstrates to others the benefits of maintaining a close partnership with Beijing as PLA capabilities advance,” he stated. He suggested that China could have helped Pakistan acquire modified variants of the PL-15 missiles. These versions would likely have a longer range than the regular export models.
Aside from boosting China’s global reputation as a major arms supplier, the combat engagement with J-10Cs further strengthens this perception. It further poses significant and troubling questions regarding the military balance of power in Asia. Yun Sun commented on this dynamic, stating, “The surprising victory of Chinese J-10 and PL-15 missiles will force people to reconsider the military balance of power in the event of a Taiwan contingency.”