As Harvard Professor Erica Chenoweth’s recent analysis highlights, it’s the 3.5% protest rule that’s most important. This rule may be key in weighing the chances of success for any mass movement in the United States. Active participation from as little as 3.5% of a population can be enough to achieve ambitious political transformations. In the U.S., this is the equivalent of almost 12 million people taking action to create change. Recent protests have raised some of the most important issues since. Based on Chenoweth’s research, today’s movements could be more effective than those during any political administration in recent history.
Chenoweth created a more detailed database of civil resistance campaigns jointly with Maria Stephan. She draws on this historical data to measure the participation in protests and their impact. She directs the Crowd Counting Consortium at Harvard. Their work has shown, protest by protest, the expansive and unprecedented scale of protests across the country, showing more protests today than during Donald Trump’s first term. This trend begs the question of what the 3.5% rule means for movements today.
Understanding the 3.5% Rule
The 3.5% rule can serve as a useful starting point. In fact, it suggests that when only a small fraction of the population engages, their engagement is frequently enough to bend the arc of movement towards success. Chenoweth stressed that meeting this threshold does not mean you will win, and it is not a failure if you do not reach this threshold. She views it more as a descriptive statistic reflecting what campaigns have done historically. The most successful movements, like Lebanon’s Cedar Revolution and the Philippines’ People Power movement, exceeded this level of participation.
In her viral 2013 Ted Talk, Chenoweth brought the importance of this figure into the spotlight. This phrase has united millions of women—and a fair number of men—against Donald Trump. Movements such as the UK’s Extinction Rebellion have already seized on it as an effective rallying cry. Chenoweth warns that it is easy to oversimplify what the equation for success looks like.
“When people boil movement success down to 3.5%, they might underemphasize some of these other factors.” – Hardy Merriman
The Quality of Participation Matters
The size of the field isn’t everything. Though the quantity of their engagement matters, the quality is equally important to the success of protests. Hardy Merriman, a prominent figure in civil resistance studies, pointed out that commitment to nonviolent discipline, training, and clear messaging are vital components that influence a movement’s success.
According to Merriman, “Three and a half percent is a quantity. There’s the question of quality. Have people been trained? Are they committed to nonviolent discipline? What is their message? What are their demands? What is their composition?” This way of looking at things brings the value of numbers into sharp relief. The nature and organization of participants are key to maintaining a successful movement’s momentum in the long term.
Over the last several years, the country has experienced a remarkable increase in protests against racism, anti-Semitism, authoritarianism and other social and political ills. Though Chenoweth noted that “we are in a bit of uncharted territory.” She proposes that contemporary protest movements might have dynamics that are radically different from those of the past.
Current Trends and Future Implications
Emerging from the largest protests ever, today’s political climate poses both challenges and opportunities for activists. Chenoweth and Stephan’s data further indicates that active and sustained participation over the 3.5% threshold generally results in successful outcomes. There are a few rare and remarkable exceptions.
As movements gain traction, it remains essential for organizers to focus on building a committed base and fostering effective strategies. Chenoweth remarked on the allure of the 3.5% figure, stating, “It looks like a magic number, looks like a number that provides people with certainty and guarantee. It’s a surprisingly modest number.” This odd simplicity can galvanize immense action, but it risks glossing over all of the complexities that go into the hard work of real change.
The importance of this data goes beyond individual campaigns. It challenges all of us to think about how social movements are changing and growing to meet the challenges of this moment. As protests continue to shape political discourse, understanding the underlying principles of organization and participation will be key to evaluating their impact.