The U.S. government is considering a sweeping ban on TikTok, potentially impacting 170 million American users who spend an average of 51 minutes daily on the app. If implemented, this ban would necessitate the removal of TikTok from Apple and Google stores by January 19, 2024. However, the Supreme Court may intervene if it accepts a last-minute legal appeal from ByteDance, TikTok's parent company. The proposed ban could have far-reaching implications, affecting not just TikTok but also other apps owned by ByteDance.
TikTok's legal team warns that the platform may "go dark" in the U.S. if the ban takes effect. This restriction would hinder user access, even for those who have already downloaded the app. Although using a Virtual Private Network (VPN) might allow some to bypass the ban, this method is not foolproof. The ban could extend to other ByteDance-owned apps like Lemon8, further complicating the digital landscape.
The U.S. government has instructed tech giants Apple and Google to prepare for the app's removal if the ban commences. However, officials have stated that these companies will not face penalties for maintaining access to TikTok, rendering the ban somewhat redundant. This situation creates a unique opportunity for TikTok’s rivals, including Twitch and Facebook, to capture displaced users.
In the competitive landscape of social media, Facebook could experience significant gains from a TikTok ban. However, Meta's recent policy changes may dampen its appeal. Chief Marketing Officers have indicated plans to redirect advertising funds to Meta and Google if TikTok becomes inaccessible.
"Chief Marketing Officers who we've spoken with confirmed that they will divert their media dollars to Meta and Google if they can no longer advertise on TikTok" – Kelsey Chickering
Platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts are poised to be natural alternatives for users, creators, and advertisers displaced by a potential TikTok ban.
"Meta-owned Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are the most natural fits for displaced users, creators, and advertisers" – Jasmine Enberg
Beyond individual users and rival platforms, the ban could disrupt TikTok’s innovative features like TikTok Shop, which enables direct purchases from videos. This would be a significant loss for U.S. creators who rely on such features for income.
Meanwhile, high-profile figures have shown interest in acquiring TikTok. Popular YouTuber MrBeast has expressed interest and reportedly been approached by several billionaires. Additionally, Elon Musk has been rumored to consider purchasing the platform.
The international ramifications of such a ban are profound. Experts warn that it could signal a shift towards an increasingly fragmented internet.
"It would totally legitimise the fragmentation of the internet along national or jurisdictional boundaries" – Professor Milton L. Mueller
Even if the ban proceeds, it might not spell the end for TikTok in the U.S. Users could still potentially access the platform through VPNs or other technological workarounds.