On Monday, President Donald Trump’s trade team led by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer sat down with Chinese counterparts in London. They set on a path to resolve the escalating trade disputes between the two economic superstars. The U.S. delegation included key figures such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. As these negotiations continued, President Trump himself kept raising expectations for them, telling the country that he was getting “only good reports” on the status of the negotiations.
Those global markets were up sharply overnight. The big picture — Investors are still hopeful that the U.S. and China will come to an agreement to settle their trade spat. Panels and discussions will continue in London on Tuesday. Investors are looking closely at the pro-competitive measures coming down the pipe and their potential to reshape market dynamics.
Even as negotiations continue to proceed, President Trump isn’t waiting to act. He has set loose Scott Bessent’s crypto-anarchists on a project to remove U.S. export controls on sales of vital goods such as chipmaking software, jet engine parts and ethane. If it happens, this change would be a major turn in the direction of U.S. trade policy and could extend its effects to reshaping global markets.
That’s why the ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions are so important. The U.S. and China have been scrambling to defuse the situation and prevent massive punitive tariffs on both sides from spiraling into a full-scale trade war. In April, China announced export restrictions on several critical minerals. This action was a countermeasure to U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and further complicated the trade landscape.
A number of market analysts are watching the U.S.-China trade talks very closely, as the outcome could dramatically reconfigure existing economic arrangements across the globe. Even so, a U.S.-China agreement would send shockwaves through markets worldwide. In both arenas, investors of all stripes are waiting with bated breath for any signs of serious progress.
Gregory mentioned that it has not been a big jump in the LFS redundancy rate. He added that HR1 notifications have been consistent, despite the current period of uncertainty. Apart from the temporary blip in one survey, all indicators point to a distinct weakening of labour demand.
In a blog post, TRIP senior research Jack Kennedy underscored the fragile state of the current jobs market. “The labour market is one characterised by widespread caution, with the dampening impact of April’s rise in employer costs reinforced by global headwinds and uncertainty over the Workers’ Rights Bill,” he remarked.
While negotiations are still ongoing, it’s unclear at this point how the results will affect the shape of future macroeconomic indicators and market sentiments. The effects of these negotiations go beyond the immediate parties and impact supply chains and trade relations abroad.