The superyacht Bayesian after sinking in August 19, 2024. Fierce storms off the coast of Porticello, Italy, battered the ship, which once belonged to late tech tycoon Mike Lynch. According to the MAIB, the Marine Accident Investigation Branch, a sudden mesocyclonic thunderstorm descended upon the vessel, with gusts in excess of 117 kilometers per hour. This led to the yacht spectacularly capsizing. This systemic event led to the deaths of seven people, including Lynch himself and his 18-year-old daughter, Hannah.
Bayesian was at anchor when the storm struck, just before dawn on November 4th. The high winds rapidly exceeded the vessel’s stability, tipping the boat farther and farther until it heeled over past its point of no return. In a matter of seconds, the yacht healed over more than 90 degrees. This critical angle of danger made it possible for water to rush over the starboard rail and eventually led to its capsizing.
In an interim report, the MAIB found that Bayesian did not initially demonstrate any indication of flooding. In an instant, water poured over the starboard rails and within seconds flooded the internal compartment through the stairwells. As Simon Graves, a marine accident investigation expert, told us when we examined this incident in depth, extreme wind conditions propelled the vessel. This, along with its stabilization characteristics, made a perfect storm.
“You have the wind pushing the vessel over and then you have the stability of the vessel trying to push the vessel back upright again. And what our studies found was that they show that the Bayesian may have been vulnerable to high winds and that these winds were likely to have been evident at the time of the accident.” – Simon Graves
The MAIB has already commissioned a stability study for Bayesian. The new research will be led by the University of Southampton’s Wolfson Unit for Marine Technology and Industrial Aerodynamics. A post-CAT reanalysis will reveal further details as to the yacht’s susceptibility to some of the most dangerous extreme weather conditions.
From recovery operations .. Yet, after a diver horrifically died performing underwater maintenance work, their suspension was lifted again. Preparatory work will restart onsite as work continues on recovery of the wreck. As we speak, Bayesian is sitting in 50 meters of water in the bay of Porticello.
In addition to the severe damage to the vessel, the storm caused the largest loss of life from a US Navy vessel since World War II. In addition to Lynch and his daughter, five others lost their lives in the crash. Fifteen survivors—one of whom, Lynch’s wife Angela Bacares, was rescued successfully after Lynch’s death—were still able to be rescued.
The complete investigation report will explain all the factors that contributed to this tragedy. Our hope is to see it out in the next 12 months. After such a tragic incident, the maritime community is reminded of the need for precautions to be taken in conditions of high wind as a routine safety precaution.
“Once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70 degrees the situation was irrecoverable.” – MAIB