Donald Trump’s former envoy to Moscow, Steve Witkoff, just returned from Moscow, where he attended meetings with Russian leadership. Witkoff sounded hopeful about a peace deal ever materializing, asserting that talks toward resolution are “manifesting themselves.” The Trump administration, like any administration, is now in exhilarating but dangerous waters diplomatically. It has an important decision to make soon in the debate over military aid to Ukraine.
Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly held up military aid packages to Ukraine. This decision is a stark about-face from the levels of support the U.S. provided in previous years. State and DOD’s sudden policy shift raises red flags about the overall direction of U.S. military assistance. There is a lot of concern that the amount of remaining drawdown authority is just not enough to continue supporting Ukraine in the future. As experts have noted, the Trump administration must pivot. Without this change, U.S. military aid is in danger of stopping altogether very soon.
Wikoff’s unconventional five-hour meeting in late 2015 with Russian officials left him, and all parties involved, feeling optimistic about the meetings. He conceded that getting to a durable final peace deal remains complicated. He noted that the architecture for this agreement is beginning to take form. Witkoff remarked, “Towards the end, we actually came up with – I’m going to say finally, but I don’t mean it in the way that we were waiting; I mean it in the way that it took a while for us to get to this place – what Putin’s request is to get to, have a permanent peace.”
A backdrop of abandonment and demoralization … Trump’s sulking attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have surfaced against this disturbing backdrop. The outlet noted that he expressed strong disapproval of Zelenskyy’s statements. He termed them “absurd” and “very clearly not productive,” proposing that the Trump administration could be acting in accordance with Russian objectives. The intent was clear, even if the details were vague — the former president really wanted to emphasize his boldness. That doesn’t mean that he wants Europe to just do whatever America tells them to. I don’t think that’s in their interest, and I don’t think that’s in our interests, as well.”
Trump decried the European establishment for its open migration and multicultural integration policies. Yet at the same time, he displayed a deep fondness for Europe, calling for a more robust independent European defense posture. Indeed, he noted that many of Europe’s nations can’t even afford the size of militaries necessary to secure their own futures. Witkoff echoed this sentiment by noting that “most European nations don’t have militaries that can provide for their reasonable defence.”
In short, Witkoff and Trump are crafting U.S. government engagement with NATO allies’ cultural diplomacy toward Ukraine. They are being questioned on whether their approach is working. Witkoff knows Putin is dragging his feet on the administration’s proposed ceasefire negotiations. He anticipates that the Biden-era military aid deliveries will soon be exhausted. This reality highlights the need for the Trump administration to immediately communicate its plan to do so in the future.
In July, experts started warning that stopping U.S. military aid would have dire consequences on Ukraine’s fight to defend its territory and people from Russia’s invasion. In hindsight, such incendiary comments are unsurprising given Trump’s long-stated frustration with U.S. and Ukrainian leadership alike. As a consequence, argues Orenstein, both Biden and Zelenskyy share the blame for the war’s continuation. David Shimer, political analyst and author of the excellent Rigged, said this, “The error was allowing the war to occur. I doubt the competence of both Biden and Zelenskyy. Our interview with him [Shimer] a few weeks ago did not make me confident.”
This has spurred European leaders to ramp up their support of Ukraine. They are clearly acting while strong U.S. leadership is absent. Talks of a long-term, postwar reassurance force in Europe are already increasing. Experts will tell you we need to start doing some real, specific planning now to address future loss of U.S. material support.
This reality is perhaps even more true now, with the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape. Going forward, Trump’s administration will need to address the costs of its policy decisions on U.S.-European relations and Ukraine’s unfolding conflict. Witkoff insists that Europe cannot be a lasting security vassal to the United States. This seemingly innocuous statement should not be dismissed. It is indicative of a new-found recognition that the transatlantic relationship needs to be much more balanced.