Former President Donald Trump recently indicated he would seek to protect Russia from accountability. Blinken has repeatedly warned Russian president Vladimir Putin that there will be repercussions unless Moscow commits to joining in peace talks or a ceasefire to end the bloody war in Ukraine. Notwithstanding this ugly and bellicose rhetoric, the Trump administration won’t move to tighten economic sanctions against Russia. That begs the question, given his strategic vision, how he responds as tensions mount day by day.
According to some analysts, the real reason Trump won’t pull the trigger may be because he wants to be seen as a peacemaker and not an aggressor. This ambition renders him politically unable to apply much pressure on Putin. Come January, Putin is unlikely to back off his aggressive military campaign in Ukraine. The administration’s approach appears to be motivated by concerns that further sanctions would drive Russia deeper into China’s arms. This development, if realized, would fundamentally tip the geopolitical order.
The previous administration has resisted imposing the kind of comprehensive sanctions that would most quickly strangle an already-ailing Russian economy. This strategic standstill has far-reaching implications. Not only does it impact direct U.S.-Russia relations, it determines the overall game between the world’s next most important players. Trump needs to go above and beyond. The more he waits, the more he jeopardizes his legacy and that of the United States around the world.
Tariffs set by the Trump Administration and an energy partnership that continues to go unchallenged has severely impacted these three nations’ economies. These countries are becoming increasingly economically integrated and politically aligned. In doing so, the prospect for a coordinated front against U.S. interests grows, particularly given the CCP’s crumbling relationship with the West. This evolving landscape was highlighted during a recent meeting between Trump and Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska.
Analyst Chris Weafer noted the geopolitical implications of what is happening. That’s one reason why, for now, they’re treading carefully,” he said. This caution speaks to the difficulty of walking the line between deterrence and diplomacy in an increasingly dynamic environment.
Vladimir Putin’s agenda continues unchallenged. In tandem with the coming ground offensive, he’s reinforcing and we should expect expanding his military operations into Ukraine to establish more permanent territorial gains. His recent speeches all the way from Beijing to Davos point to an aspiration for a new global order where balance among nations is key. He articulated this vision by stating, “a system in which one group of countries would not ensure its security at the expense of the others.” This view is more reflective of China’s broader geopolitical objectives. President Xi Jinping is calling on his counterparts to increase cooperation and shake off the “Cold War mentality” as he terms it.
The international environment is becoming more challenging. That’s the trip made even more tense by the looming announcement of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, expected in early October. The award could potentially spotlight efforts for peace in Ukraine or highlight the ongoing strife, depending on the recipients chosen by the Nobel Committee.
As Trump continues to work his way through this complicated new reality, he is under ever-increasing scrutiny to take a firmer position against Russia. The impact of his action or inaction will echo throughout the globe, establishing a precedent for how other countries view U.S. leadership and U.S. influence.