Even former President Donald Trump, known for belligerent military threats, warned against this type of military strike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, an important uranium enrichment site. We learned from recent Congressional Defense Appointments that if we were to drop the GBU-57s, a new super-duper 13.6-tonne (30,000-pound) bomb it could be enough to neutralize Fordow. In more private moments, Trump expresses concern over whether the military could even pull off such an operation.
Fordow, strategically constructed deep underground by Iran, is a key part of Iran’s nuclear program. Its underground location protects it from airstrikes. That dual-use infrastructure creates overwhelming challenges for any kinetic military operation attempting to destroy it. Experts say that such a successful strike would need to disable GPS jammers and other anti-strike defenses set up before their deployment would be necessary.
The GBU-57, which was specifically designed to penetrate deep underground targets, would theoretically be able to reach the heart of the Fordow facility and neutralize it. If implemented effectively, such an attack might set back Iran’s capability to produce weapons-grade uranium by at least five years. According to one set of estimates, taking out Fordow would only delay the program by six months to a year.
As sure as Trump would make any military action against Iran depend on whether or not the GBU-57 actually works. First, he refuses to let it be a guarantee to truly shutdown Fordow before moving forward. He has demonstrated a commitment to making sure military operations will be successful before putting U.S. forces in harm’s way.
Meanwhile, Israel has created its own plans to hit Fordow irrespective of U.S. support. Israeli forces suggested an ambitious plan. They intended to deliver commandos in helicopters to land forces in an aerial assault that would breach the facility and carry out a deadly explosive attack from inside. As Foreign Policy reported, this has been Trump’s preferred approach, showing preference for more traditional airstrikes.
These debates are somewhat akin to Israel’s 1981 bombing of Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. Israel acted with remarkable boldness and determination to prevent Iraq from advancing its nuclear weapons program. That facility was built above ground, a sharp contrast to Fordow’s heavily protected underground facility.
Retired Major General Randy Manner, a former deputy director of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), emphasized the complexities involved in targeting such a facility: “It would not be a one and done.” This pronouncement further highlights the quandary Biden’s administration would face in seeking Fordow’s complete destruction without provoking massive retaliation from Iran.