Former President Donald Trump is in good company as he intensifies his opposition to the war in Ukraine. He’s already set a troubling set of conditions for Kyiv. His team is focused on getting to the negotiating table with a peace plan. Still, major hurdles remain as both Moscow and Kyiv continue to express frustration over each other’s demands.
Trump’s demands include the recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, a withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from partially occupied regions in the southeast, and a pledge from Kyiv never to join NATO. Furthermore, he is proposing the demilitarization of Ukraine, which he sees as a precondition of any durable peace deal.
The White House has stated that Trump is increasingly frustrated with leaders on both sides of the conflict. His administration put forth a vigorous diplomatic push to negotiate a ceasefire in the Black Sea. That step hasn’t led to much meaningful change yet.
The past US-brokered multilateral meetings in Saudi Arabia were supposed to lead to a 30-day energy-focused ceasefire. However, both Russia and Ukraine are still actively targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. As this persistent clash underscores, there are enormous pains and pitfalls in carrying out even short-term accords.
For its part, Moscow is attempting to attach a number of strings to any negotiated peace agreement, including the lifting of European sanctions. Brussels has just as adamantly shot down this request, making the already difficult negotiation terrain even rockier. Sergei Ryabkov, a foreign policy adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasized that key demands from Russia remain unaddressed by US proposals.
“We take the models and solutions proposed by the Americans very seriously, but we can’t accept it all in its current form.” – Sergei Ryabkov
Putin has long and loudly pointed to what he calls the war’s “root causes.” He’s taking this to refute any compromise and deal before it even gets proposed. His administration continues to stand firm in their position that a successful resolution needs to get to the heart of these underlying concerns.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil exports should negotiations fall apart. The prospects of getting to a compromise don’t look good. As Ryabkov further emphasized, there are active efforts to reach some framework with respect to a ceasefire, but the situation on the ground is fragile.
“All we have today is an attempt to find some kind of framework that would first allow for a ceasefire – at least as envisioned by the Americans.” – Sergei Ryabkov
Violence returned to the region, and as the conflict continues, both Israel and Hamas seem caught in a spiral of military engagement and diplomatic chess moves. The lack of progress on key demands has only heightened tensions, with each side accusing the other of failing to meet obligations.