Former President Donald Trump has issued a bold ultimatum to Russia, threatening to impose taxes, tariffs, and sanctions if a peace agreement to end the ongoing war in Ukraine is not reached soon. This marks Trump's most comprehensive effort yet to broker peace in the region, reflecting a significant shift in his approach towards the Kremlin. Amidst escalating tensions, top Russian officials have shown an unusual willingness to engage with Trump, signaling potential diplomatic openings.
Trump's recent rhetoric represents some of his strongest public criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Historically, Trump has maintained a notably amicable relationship with Putin, emphasizing on Wednesday that he "always had a very good relationship" with the Russian leader. However, he now advocates for stringent economic measures targeting Russia's economy, particularly in the energy sector. Trump has instructed his special envoy, Keith Kellogg, to negotiate an end to the conflict within 100 days, underscoring his commitment to swift action.
“I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries,” – Donald Trump
The annual trade between the United States and Europe amounts to approximately $1.5 trillion, a stark contrast to the mere $3.4 billion trade volume between the United States and Russia in the first eleven months of 2024. This economic disparity underscores the leverage the United States could wield through targeted sanctions.
Despite Trump's assertive stance, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains steadfast in his demands for resolving the conflict. He insists that Ukraine must not join NATO, adopt a neutral status, and undergo partial demilitarization. Additionally, Putin demands the lifting of Western sanctions and seeks to retain control over Crimea and four Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow in 2022.
“It’s not merely the question of ending the war. It’s first and foremost the question of addressing the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis,” – Dmitry Polyanskiy
“So we have to see what does the ‘deal’ mean in President Trump’s understanding,” – Dmitry Polyanskiy
In recent statements, Trump has pledged to end the war before taking office should he win the presidential election. His comments signal a departure from previous approaches, as he notably omits any mention of bolstering Ukraine with additional weaponry, focusing instead on economic strategies to pressure Moscow.
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik, noted that Putin appears confident in his ability to outlast Ukraine despite Trump's efforts to force negotiations.
“A peace deal on Russian terms would save significant resources, but absent such an agreement, Putin is prepared to fight for as long as it takes,” – She
“If the Kremlin concludes that no favourable deal with Trump is forthcoming, they will likely focus on prolonging the conflict,” – She
Putin's recent diplomatic engagements reflect his strategy to fortify alliances beyond Western influence. He hosted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow and held discussions via video link with Chinese leader Xi Jinping earlier this week.
Amidst these developments, Trump has expressed his belief that resolving the conflict requires direct communication with Putin.
“I have to speak to President Putin. We’re going to have to find out,” – Donald Trump
Despite acknowledging Russia's larger military capacity, Trump criticized Putin's leadership approach.
“Russia is bigger, they have more soldiers to lose, but that’s no way to run a country,” – Donald Trump
“He can’t be thrilled, he’s not doing so well,” – Donald Trump
Trump has vowed to take decisive action to bring an end to the war, asserting that it could have been avoided under his leadership.
“Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way – and the easy way is always better,” – Donald Trump