When former President Donald Trump recently called for U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine, that was news. Unlike prior U.S. statements, these have provoked a nuanced reaction from Moscow. While Trump has claimed that he is “not happy” with President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin appears less rattled than relieved by the unfolding events.
Trump’s outline for a second term named shipments of new arms to Ukraine, claiming these would be paid by the governments of Europe. His administration has pushed equally hard on Congress to back Ukraine. The country has experienced military attacks since Russia launched its full-scale invasion more than three years ago. This conflict is now the largest land war in Europe since World War Two.
In an effort to put the squeeze on Russia, Trump promised new tariffs to destroy the country’s war chest. Specifically, he announced that Russia should be negotiating an agreement to halt the titanic war in Ukraine that began 50 days prior. If we do not see that, additional sanctions will follow. This ultimatum may be doomed to fail. In fact, Russian officials have expressed a positive reception to the broad ceasefire idea that Trump tweeted out on September 11.
During a recent visit to a Russian military base housing nuclear submarines, Putin appeared unperturbed by Trump’s threats, smiling as he engaged with military personnel. Combined, this demeanor indicates that he is not in any rush to ink a peace agreement. As a measure of the excitement in Russia, the Russian stock exchange reacted enthusiastically to Trump’s pronouncements, increasing by 2.7%. This should signal to investors that they can expect a less daunting economic landscape than once thought.
As analysts have pointed out, overconfidence is one of Trump’s most dangerous tendencies with international heads of state. A local publication remarked, “[Trump] clearly has delusions of grandeur. And a very big mouth.” This view highlights the long-standing doubts about Trump’s capacity to change Putin’s mind anyway.
On this particular issue, Trump made the more aggressive move. He nonetheless indicated optimism over cutting a deal with Putin that might bring an end to the fighting. His administration’s inconsistent messaging could make this ambitious goal much harder, with both leaders still forced to operate in a febrile geopolitical environment.