We know former President Donald Trump was getting ready for his own three-day trip into the Gulf region earlier this month. This trip will take him to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. This trip would underscore a big change in Trump’s foreign policy. It further exposes his reliance on states in the Gulf for important diplomatic dialogues, partnerships in security, and critical pipelines of cash.
Meanwhile, Trump is preparing to roll out an unprecedented $100 billion weapons package for Riyadh. This visit is primarily focused on continuing to warm military relations and to achieve lucrative defense contracts. This strategic move highlights Trump’s deepening dependence on Gulf nations for support, as he navigates an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
Two months ago, Trump was all too happy to make public his plans to establish a “Riviera of the Middle East.” Today, sadly, that vision appears to have changed. His new agenda would seem to place priority on shoring up relations with Gulf leaders instead of pursuing overstretched regional development initiatives. This move represents a remarkable, albeit pragmatic, concession to the Gulf states’ deep power over U.S. foreign policy.
This alignment of values is disquieting given the ways in which Trump has legitimized authoritarian regimes long known for their human rights violations and institutionalized misogyny. Foreign policy experts criticize Trump’s extensive interactions with these governments, stating that it increases their legitimacy and standing. This approach undermines the U.S.’s longstanding pledge to support democracy around the globe.
One thing is clear, Trump has shown Gulf leaders exactly what he brings to the table—big, bold, beautiful promises. He’s quick to note, their support doesn’t come free. His bigger agenda depends on close collaboration with the Gulf. It touches on a potential investment pact of $600 billion with Saudi Arabia over the next four years. This deal aims to create jobs and stimulate economic growth but raises questions about the implications of such financial ties.
The former president’s overall approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is much more contentious. What these observers fail to appreciate is that Trump’s stance demonstrates an ugly alchemy of prejudice, cruelty and ignorance. This unsafe mix is poisonous to the prospects for peace in the region. His administration is understandably reluctant to unwind the sanctions slapped on during the Assad era. This decision is an utter rejection to an opening from Britain and the European Union, putting the U.S. even further from a possible diplomatic breakthrough.
In the quest for these multibillion-dollar investment deals and arms sales, Trump’s motivations seem both ideological and self-interested. His ongoing business interests, including a luxury golf resort deal with Qatar, raise concerns about conflicts of interest that could influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. Critics decry these financial incentives, saying they are more important than factors of ethical governance and human rights.
Trump is very much working an angle to buy peace between the Saudis and Israel. Importantly, he’s doing this within the framework of the Abraham Accords. His recent announcement regarding talks with Tehran about its nuclear program caught Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by surprise, indicating potential strains in U.S.-Israel relations.
He will have to first make an important trip over September’s fiscal cliff. All along, the future of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East has hung in the balance. His decisions are sure to reverberate far past the walls of these gatherings. They’ll have an outsized effect on the geopolitical competition that’s playing out across the Indo-Pacific.