Donald Trump’s trade war isn’t done yet. A recent ruling by a federal appeals court has further, if only temporarily, upheld some of his global tariffs, guaranteeing that the fight goes on. The court’s decision has raised questions about the future of Trump’s tariff agenda and the potential for reimposing tariffs under different legal justifications. As the political landscape shifts, it appears that Trump could leverage the situation to implement tariffs on specific sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
During his time in office, Trump has leveraged tariffs to negotiate trade deals with countries from South Korea to China. Yet this was the very legal authority that his administration used to impose tariffs. From February 2025 through last month, these tariffs have produced almost $11.8 billion in revenue from imports from China, Mexico and Canada. Moreover, tariffs he first imposed on China early in his first term have brought in an estimated $23.4 billion.
That recent court ruling does not affect the 25% sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. It would keep the extra 25% tariffs on car and car part imports in place. These tariffs were imposed under entirely different legal justifications, and they still stand. The “Liberation Day” tariffs that were announced on April 2 created a universal 10% baseline tariff across the board on all imports to the U.S. Now, those tariffs are in jeopardy.
The new tariffs are expected to increase revenue by an even larger amount over the full fiscal year. Their potential impact is nothing short of amazing. According to analysts at Capital Economics, we should expect one of the largest shifts in U.S. tariffs this year. Their estimate of the average external tariff coming down from 15% to about 6.5%.
Trump’s approach to tariffs has been more strategic, using them as leverage in negotiations with the affected countries. The World Trade Organization has warned that global trade prospects have sharply deteriorated due to the ongoing trade war initiated by Trump.
Even Trump himself has suggested that he is unsure of his tariff strategies. He is very much looking forward to finding other legal avenues for re-implementing tariffs. This could involve invoking Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which grants the president authority to impose tariffs in response to unfair trade practices.
“Trump’s trade war is not over – not by a long shot.” – Grace Fan of the consultancy TS Lombard.
This court’s decision potentially leaves the future of Trump’s tariff agenda in limbo. It does provide limited, short-term relief from certain tariffs. At the same time, it opens up doors for significant amendments or even new tariffs under other legal frameworks. As Trump continues to navigate this complex landscape, stakeholders across various industries remain vigilant about the implications of these decisions.