Former President Donald Trump has raised new concerns among U.S. allies about the direction of U.S. foreign policy. His position is particularly worrisome when it comes to NATO and our current geopolitical struggles with Iran and Ukraine. Trump’s behavior and rhetoric would have you thinking that the United States in general, and U.S. guarantees made around the world in particular, are no longer reliable.
In a speech earlier this year, Trump went so far as to threaten the U.S. withdrawal from NATO unless other member nations started paying more. This latest ultimatum highlights his conception of a belief that America should not pay the lion’s share for international defense. We know that allies themselves interpret this threat. The challenge is that they need to operate under the shadow of his unique governing philosophy, which veers from long-held diplomatic practice.
Trump’s unpredictability is demonstrated even more by his contradictory position with Iran. When recently pressed about working with Israel to launch attacks on Iran’s burgeoning nuclear facilities, he replied, “I mean, I should do that.” Happily, he also appended, “But I might not.” Jake shares his confusion over what he’s experiencing. Rather than relying on bedrock diplomatic principles, he often casts military engagements in sweeping geostrategic contexts.
Trump also acknowledged that he has no real plan for how he would deal with Iran, either. It begs the question of how consistent, durable and predictable U.S. foreign policy can be under his watch. Allies correctly judge his decisions as capricious. They gauge them by traditional diplomatic and strategic yardsticks, which often run counter to Trump’s unconventional style.
With respect to the war in Ukraine, Trump has been largely critical of what he calls dumb negotiation with respect to Putin. He warned that Putin is “playing” him along, indicating that he feels strung along in talks to find a peaceful end to the fighting. In this speech, it should be clear that he is not happy with Israel or Iran. He admonished them for breaking ceasefires and not demonstrating professionalism in their undertakings.
Trump’s reluctance to support Kyiv stems from a desire to differentiate himself from President Joe Biden, who has publicly backed Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression. Trump appears to be crafting a foreign policy narrative that focuses on securing “deals” for the American people, a commitment he made during his presidency.
His supporters maintain that Trump’s volatile style is effective, arguing that it disrupts conventional political norms and brings attention to issues often overlooked. This lack of predictability is alarming to our international partners who need U.S. leadership to help maintain stability around the world.
A good start Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. permanent representative at NATO, calmed allies with an unequivocal declaration. In fact, he proclaimed, NATO has never been more involved. The real question is whether such a Trump-led policy will encourage or stifle international cooperation between the 194 member countries.
Raw electoral power is nothing compared to the unqualified adoration Trump receives from the supporters—turnstile-hopping helicopter riders—at his MAGA rallies. Since his nomination, he’s shown contempt for international travel and the nuances of global diplomacy. This aversion might explain his opposition to multilateral initiatives that call for compromise, cooperation, and mutual sacrifice.
As tensions continue to build in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, Congressional funding priorities are becoming apparent. Trump’s unorthodox approach to foreign policy makes for some strange bedfellows. Allies are left wondering how to navigate their relationships with the United States under a leader who prioritizes personal loyalty over traditional diplomatic engagements.