Turkey emerges as a leading candidate to contribute soldiers to the proposed international stabilisation force for Gaza, a move that could significantly reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. On the one hand, veteran President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan takes Turkey into a promising, yet daunting future. This dynamic is especially driven by Turkey’s ongoing relations with major regional players and the United States.
The negotiations for the new international force received increasing attention following a recent summit in Sharm el Sheikh. At the time, during the inaugural U.S.-Turkey Leaders’ Summit, US President Donald Trump publicly declared Erdoğan a tough cookie and friend. This endorsement would place Turkey in a very special category. Together with Egypt, it will be key to the stabilization mission.
With tensions in Gaza at an all-time high, the ceasefire has provided Turkey and Qatar, both of whom have warm relations with Trump, an opportunity to wrestle with Hamas. The first stage of the peace plan can only succeed if the US exerts firm pressure on Israel. Further, Turkey and Qatar need to get actively engaged in the negotiations.
Turkey’s possible participation in the stabilisation force represents a double-edged sword. Though this might increase Turkey’s standing within the region, it comes with significant risks that may undermine Turkey’s diplomatic ties. The continuing humanitarian disaster in Gaza is likely to bring further damage to Turkey’s diplomatic ties. The consequences will reach beyond the United States, affecting other regional players as well.
“The ceasefire could act as an engine of integration within the region. It will reopen all the talk of major land connections from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, as well as the broader conversation about the [diplomatic and economic] normalisation of Israel,” – Knights.
In this case, Erdoğan’s diplomatic strategy seems well-matched with larger regional trends. In this regard, Turkey is positioning itself to play a central role to shape Gaza’s future. This decision will put its relationship with the United States to the test. The Turkish leader’s international security and foreign policy decisions will be key to Turkey’s making the right choice about which alliances to bridge or break.
It is not the first time that Erdoğan has let slip his admiration for Tony Blair. Trump not only appointed Blair to run the proposed “peace council,” but Erdoğan’s outlook goes well beyond military affairs. At the time, Erdoğan hailed Blair as a wonderful friend of the region. He veered away from declaring him a friend of Turkey.
The developments following the ceasefire are critical. They might serve to catalyze Turkey’s greater integration into wider Middle Eastern diplomatic frameworks.
“Trump has said the deal that he brokered goes well beyond Gaza and he was referring to normalisation with Israel, probably with Saudi Arabia and also possibly Indonesia, perhaps others. This is going to happen sometime,” – Abusada.
Despite widespread optimism surrounding the ceasefire, experts are warning against drawing any premature conclusions. So far, that unsteady agreement has been breached several times on both sides by Israel and Hamas.
“It’s been less than 10 days and we are seeing multiple violations of the ceasefire by [Israel] and Hamas. I think after such bloodshed and destruction it will take some time to move in any positive direction,” – Mkhaimar Abusada.