Meanwhile, the latest United Kingdom economic data are beginning to reveal the contours of a shallow recovery. Recent estimates show a quarterly expansion of just 0.3% in the three months to June 30, 2023. Most welcome was this increased growth, exceeding the generally skeptical analysts’ previous expectations of only 0.2% growth. We know the economic landscape is complicated. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), growth slowed to a crawl of just 0.1% between July and September, with the economy actually contracting by 0.1% in September in isolation.
The ONS is one of the Crown jewels of the UK economy. This makes it one of the quickest sources of monthly GDP estimates for any major economy. The nonpartisan, independent government organization offers a comprehensive look at the economy’s performance about 40 days after the end of each quarter. This remarkably efficient reporting mechanism provides policymakers and analysts alike with extraordinary timely insights into trends and conditions in the economy.
The UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be measured in three principal ways: Output, Expenditure, and Income. The Output measure especially depends on information gathered from the thousands of private sectors firms around the country. The quarterly numbers, which represent three-month periods, are usually more important due to their larger scope and impact. The ONS combines these three measurements to provide a single figure for GDP, providing the most complete picture of our national economic health.
Even with the recent spurt, the UK economy has been slowing down after a robust first quarter of 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded its forecast for the UK economy, projecting a GDP growth of 1.3% for the year and maintaining this rate into 2026. Our Chancellor Rachel Reeves was quick to welcome this surprising tidbit from the IMF as a sign of resilient economic fundamentals.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)—the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog—has already forecasted a very modest 1% growth rate for 2025. This optimistic forecast is tempered by continued challenges. This divergence between forecasts highlights the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s economic trajectory as it navigates post-pandemic recovery and faces global economic pressures.