Meanwhile, Ukraine remains stuck in a dangerous middle ground as it considers painful compromises in current international negotiations over peace. The draft roadmap, which controversially suggested Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, has faced enormous backlash. Under the draft terms, Ukraine would limit its military size and refrain from joining NATO, further constraining its sovereignty.
After a leaked Russian document appeared in August, talks accelerated. The United States quickly passed that same document along to Ukraine, escalating the situation even more. This report describes the substantive issues that ought to be addressed in any eventual peace deal, putting pressure on Ukraine’s leadership to move quickly. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wanted to push the agreement through by a certain Thursday. At the same time, Donald Trump was in the news for backtracking on his earlier threats to withdraw from the deal.
Taking direct command of a Ukrainian delegation just hours ago, Andriy Yermak, Ukraine’s chief of staff, is going to Geneva. During their trip, they will meet with officials from France, Germany and the United Kingdom to discuss developments. The goal, then, is to reframe this controversial plan in a way that better serves Ukraine’s national interests.
Zelenskyy was clear on what an unenviable position Ukraine has been put in. He stated, “We face an impossible choice between betraying national interests and losing a major ally in the shape of the US.” Far from it, things are more complicated. Major concessions of territory would put the future integrity of Ukraine at risk and their operational strength would be adversely affected.
The draft plan has already alarmed Ukrainian leaders, who are worried about its impact on their nation’s sovereignty. By excluding NATO membership and imposing conditions on EU membership, the plan seems to greatly reduce Ukraine’s independence. This has resulted in fiery debate inside Ukraine about what giving the terms agreed to could mean for Ukraine’s long-term future.
Moreover, Yermak’s team is quietly and frantically trying to “reconstitute” the plan with the help of European leaders. Our hope is to adapt it in a way that respects Ukraine’s dignity. We recognize the desires and needs to quickly provide peace, stability and support to the region.
U.S. officials are right to be cautiously optimistic as the negotiations advance. They think they have enough of a deal in hand to do right by Ukraine. Doubt remains as to whether the deal is truly a peace accord. Marco Rubio, a U.S. senator involved in discussions with Ukrainian officials, has asserted that the text of the plan does not reflect American interests.
Although the peace talks are a step in the right direction, the situation is quickly deteriorating and becoming dangerous. Former President Donald Trump has drawn ire recently for denouncing Ukrainian leadership for their perceived ingratitude about U.S. support. He remarked, “UKRAINE ‘LEADERSHIP’ HAS EXPRESSED ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS, AND EUROPE CONTINUES TO BUY OIL FROM RUSSIA.”
It’s a difficult balancing act, fraught with peril and with huge implications for Ukraine and its war, as international pressure meets Ukrainian national interests. The coming decisions have the potential to reshape its ties with Russia fundamentally. Yet they will equally affect relations with Western partners, and particularly the US.