Ukraine now enters a challenging new phase in its conflict with Russia. It needs to start readying itself for a future in which a ceasefire is not on the immediate horizon. The nation launched this war without a seagoing fleet. By the middle of 2023, it had effectively succeeded in boxing in the Russian Black Sea fleet. Advocacy needed as Ukraine continues to be bombarded by relentless Russian attacks. It has identified creative strategies and technology to shore up its deterrent.
By 2025, Russia has seen success in counter-offensives limited as they struggle to hold ground won inside Ukraine’s territory. According to the latest independent Russian-language reporting, Russian forces are attempting to push a new ground offensive. Their battlefront advances toward Velykyi Burluk, located some 50 miles east of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s overall defense strategy evolved into what experts refer to as “active defense.” It highlights cutting-edge strategies to truly defeat and deter Russian progress.
Ukraine’s recent successes include the effective deployment of remotely piloted sea drones. Flying far beyond the range of Russian radar, these unmanned vehicles have even successfully sunk Russian warships. They remain a serious threat to other ships in the Black Sea area. This strategic innovation underscores Ukraine’s remarkable capacity to adapt and overcome complex challenges directed at them by their foe.
Despite these advancements, the situation remains dire. In June, Russian forces were losing an estimated 1,100 soldiers a day. This staggering figure brings home the horrific price of their military campaigns. The battle is not over, as both sides stand dug in a trench-warfare stalemate that’s gone on for months with no end in sight.
Under such sustained Russian onslaught, Ukraine has not only survived but retained a level of operational initiative. Consumer-grade, first-person view (FPV) drones, costing as little as £300 to £370 ($400 to $500), have been instrumental in stopping Russia’s advances. Their efficiency has been crucial in keeping defense out of the dog house. These small drones have enabled essential reconnaissance and strike capabilities, allowing Ukrainian forces to determine and even preempt enemy movement.
To be sure, Ukraine has made impressive progress in many areas. Beyond sustaining defensive operations, Ukraine is confronted with a tremendous challenge to reclaim territories currently held by Moscow. Things get even more troubling as Russia is likely to expand its drone warfare capabilities. Other estimates suggest they would be able to deploy up to 1,000 drones in one evening.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukrainian defense minister and Track 1.5 workshop participant, has offered a new theory of victory for Ukraine. He wants to talk about this idea, strategic neutralisation. This strategy does aim to render Russian forces unable to threaten the strategic, political, economic, and social foundations of Ukrainian life. The purpose of this approach is to ensure a free, sovereign, and independent Ukraine. Even in the absence of a declared ceasefire, Ukraine should remain on the offensive.
“An acceptable armistice may never formally arrive.” – Andriy Zagorodnyuk
That situation is partly a product of the new environment created by President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to stop the war. His administration continues to pursue aggressive military actions, indicating a long-term commitment to the conflict that does not align with diplomatic resolutions.