Even Israel’s recent actions have led to much discussion and disagreement over whether these military strikes are effective or counterproductive in the long term. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has launched assaults targeting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic weapons programs, yet experts warn that such measures are unlikely to achieve Israel’s strategic objectives. The rest of the situation is still very precarious as Israel’s military power is running up against significant constraints, threatening to further aggravate tensions in an already explosive region.
Increasingly, analysts and commentators are expressing alarm at the Israeli campaign. Yet, the administration appears to have expanded its goal from simply neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities to including regime change in Tehran. The critics are right – if we just use air power, we won’t have the effect that we need. Andreas Krieg, a security expert, stated, “It’s not the holy grail. We’d learned the lesson that air power alone doesn’t work. And then we learned in Iraq and Afghanistan that even massive numbers of boots on ground doesn’t work.”
There is evidence that Israel’s overall military strategy has been to escalate hostilities into a broader conflict. This tactic is intended to guarantee U.S. engagement, particularly under President Donald Trump. This gambit might blow up in their face, experts warn, for it would lead to especially perilous consequences. Toby Dodge noted, “If Khamenei has the sense to step back, if America doesn’t come in, then Israel has stuck its finger in a hornets’ nest.”
As noted above, Israel operationally succeeded in targeting critical Iranian sites and personnel, and tactically, the airstrikes were effective. These advancements don’t result in permanent strategic wins. The idea that Israel is capable of even longer-term military operations is dubious, as logistical issues would hamper Israel’s military initiatives. The nation is apparently running out of bunker-busting bombs for deep strikes. It will soon run into missile interceptor shortages, which will severely constrain its ability to defend itself against Iranian retaliation.
The Israeli military’s offensive strategy has opened its cities to retaliatory attacks from Iranian ballistic missiles. Consequently, experts are cautioning that the new campaign could lead to a protracted war. They worry that Israel is ill-prepared to address the challenges that accompany this. “What we’re seeing is not a strategic approach but one that is operational using air power, and the operational approach is starting to consume the strategic one which is about the political endgame,” said Krieg.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has for years bragged about his ability to maneuver U.S. politics. As crisis upon crisis continue to arise, he’s forced to grapple with significant pressure both at home and overseas. It is time for Israeli leadership to decide how far their aggressive, muscular response will produce real gains versus backfire.
The possible costs of this deepening military engagement are enormous. Critics caution that a major attack on Iranian nuclear installations might provoke a much deeper anti-American backlash from the Islamic Republic. This blow may solidify the clerical regime’s resolve to defy Israel. As Dodge suggests, there is a prevailing belief among Israeli politicians that “violence will deliver a solution to what are political problems.”
The ramifications of Israel’s actions extend beyond its borders, as any escalation could embroil the United States in a complex conflict with Iran. Daniel C. Kurtzer and Steven N. Simon caution that “subcontracting the Fordow job would put the United States in Iran’s sights,” leading to a potential backlash against American civilians. Such initiatives would surely force the U.S. to retaliate militarily, setting off a dangerous cycle of escalation.
For Israel, the military campaign against Hezbollah has brought tactical successes, but failures to fundamentally change the regional balance of power. Yet the prospect of a longer-term conflict is truly alarming. Israeli pilots are sure to be tired, and the military aircraft maintenance requirements would soon limit long-term offensive operations.