On the evening of Friday, October 24, 2025 US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the financial community. He made his statement at board public hearing in Washington, DC. His comments were largely directed at the state of the economy today and what it would mean to start cutting interest rates in the future. Powell did imply that rate cuts may be appropriate in his October 14 address. He emphasized that investors should not bet on a December cut just yet.
As part of his most recent testimony, Powell admitted to the current unknowns caused due to the absence of reliable government data. This lack of clarity makes it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve, which has always been guided by robust economic indicators, to make clear-headed decisions. The Fed’s next policy meeting is in December. During this meeting they will revise their own projections and guide us to a more concrete path for future monetary policy.
Insights from Recent Meetings
In these past exchanges, Powell and other central bankers reached a notable consensus. They voted to begin with rate cuts for the first time since last December. Their go-slow attitude is indicative of the larger worry over the softening labor market. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee strongly reaffirmed this, particularly highlighting the challenges created by the lack of available data.
“And if you’re not going to get the data, it’s just that much harder.” – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
In fact, earlier this year, the President went after the independent Federal Reserve. He implored them to take action with deeper cuts. In his book, Powell makes masterful sense of these confusing currents. He’ll need to balance competing economic signals and understand the likely effects of Trump’s economic agenda.
Powell highlighted the current situation regarding employment and inflation, noting that “the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting.” As this quote illustrates, not all metrics are designed to be changeable. The question mark hanging over future federal data could prevent prompt and effective action.
The Impact of Data Limitations
With the current government shutdown, there are major concerns about the lack of available data and how it will affect key trends shaping monetary policy decisions. Today the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was released. The October CPI report, scheduled for release on November 13, could be delayed if the shutdown drags on.
Uncertainty remains as to what will happen next, according to Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, and the Fed’s likely response to that uncertainty. She stated that “the Fed could conclude there’s so much uncertainty because of the lack of government data that it takes it slower with cutting rates than it normally would.” On balance, this way of looking at things strengthens our sense that cautiousness will be the order of the day as Powell and crew take stock.
Access to full and transparent data is crucial to the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. As Powell prepares for a post-meeting news conference scheduled for Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET, all eyes will be on him and his colleagues as they navigate these turbulent times.
Market Reactions and Future Projections
Financial markets are currently almost certain that we’ll see at least one rate cut by December. Unfortunately, Powell’s recent comments suggest that these expectations may be overly sanguine. He knows that his every utterance is closely parsed by the investment community, especially during these long months of unanticipated economic storms.
Like Waller, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has repeatedly stressed the importance of a gradual approach to rate cuts. He advised that “you don’t want to make a mistake, so the way to avoid that is to go cautiously or carefully and do [a quarter-point cut], wait and see what happens, and then you can get a better idea of what to do.” This sentiment is indicative of a prevailing attitude, along with the rest of the Fed, of caution in the face of continued uncertainty.
As Powell prepares to address various stakeholders in the coming days, his insights will be pivotal in shaping market expectations and informing economic strategies moving forward. Investors and economists alike will be eagerly attuned to how he responds to questions about the economy’s course in the face of these headwinds.