The United Kingdom is unique among large economies in its speed in producing these GDP estimates. It’s the measure that releases preliminary estimates for its economic activity in only 40 days past each quarter’s end. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes updated GDP figures monthly, providing valuable insights into economic growth and well-being. Since 2010, the ONS has begun measuring people’s well-being as a complement to more traditional indicators of economic performance. This update gives a far more complete picture of the nation’s economic well-being.
At the start of each quarter, there should only be 60% of the needed data at most. This uncertainty results in frequent downward revisions to the GDP numbers as new data becomes available. This first snapshot zeroes in on the Output measure of GDP. This indicator is the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product for all sectors of the economy. It uses unique data that we’ve recently started collecting from tens of thousands of companies to give a real-time, or early, look at economic performance.
GDP can be measured in three distinct ways: Output, Expenditure, and Income. The Expenditure measure, which is pretty self-explanatory, captures all the goods and services that households are purchasing. It covers government spending, investments in machinery and buildings, and the balance of imports and exports. The Income measure represents the total value of income created in the economy—which mostly means profits and wages. The ONS adds all three of these measurements together to find one all-inclusive, imperfect GDP measurement. This allows them to get a very accurate, holistic view of economic activity.
Just today, new figures showed the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in October. That drop was even echoed in the August-to-October timeframe, which registered a 0.1% contraction. Five pillars of a recession A sustained decline in GDP for two successive quarters usually indicates a recession. This casts significant doubt on the length and sustainability of the economic upturn.
Inspite of these near-term contractions, the UK’s economy is projected to expand – albeit at a slower pace. Forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast a 1.5% growth this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers a somewhat more cautious forecast, with a 1.3% growth rate in 2025. These projections are of vital importance to both policymakers and businesses as they lead through potentially tumultuous economic waters.
ONS monthly GDP updates are of chief importance in tracking the current state of economic growth. Read our updates story by story, or view the overarching impact on equity, health, and quality of life. The ONS combines measures of well-being and economic indicators even further. This method, pioneered by a new generation of local officials, highlights the importance of quality of life in measuring true economic prosperity.