United Airlines has provided a mixed outlook on its earnings as the company navigates the complexities of the airline industry in 2025. In mid-April, it was the first airline to publicize two possible earnings outlooks. They forecast EPS of $11.50 to $13.50 in normal conditions, and $7 to $9 in a recession. The timing of this release was particularly poignant, as United Airlines was navigating both an unpredictable return to demand and a crowded and competitive…
In the second quarter, United Airlines announced better-than-expected earnings, although net income fell sharply. The company’s net income fell 26% to $973 million, or $2.97/share. This overall decline is mostly due to a general revenue decrease. Domestic passenger revenue per seat mile dropped, down 7% compared to the same period last year. The airline’s unit revenue dropped 4% in the quarter, too.
Though these challenges are no small feat to overcome, the future looks bright, at least according to United Airlines’ CEO, Scott Kirby. It’s good to see demand for travel slowly recover after an awful start to the year, Cheung added. Kirby stated, “The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year.”
The airline has seen encouraging trends in other key segments as well. In fact, premium revenue was up 5.6% over last year. This trend reflects the growing willingness on the part of customers to pay for extra comfort while on board. Basic-economy class — their codeword for high-yield, frequent-flyer — sales advanced 1.7% YOY modestly in that dimension. This increase indicates that consumers are consistently looking for ways to travel more affordably.
Looking forward, United Airlines expects adjusted income of $2.25 to $2.75 per share in the third quarter. This forecast is a testament to the airline’s ability to pivot and adjust to new market conditions and customer preferences.
Similar to rivals like American Airlines, United Airlines is getting squeezed by price-sensitive customers, most acutely on domestic flights. Regardless, the airline continues to be focused on adapting its approaches to service to these changing needs. The airline’s ability to balance revenue generation with customer satisfaction will be crucial as it moves forward into the latter part of 2025.