The notion of the United States declaring total war on Mexican drug cartels presents a complex tapestry of ramifications, both immediate and long-term. Mexican cartels have entrenched themselves into the very fabric of Mexico's economic structure, acting as significant employers and contributors to the economy. A military intervention would not only disrupt this balance but also endanger countless lives on both sides of the border.
Mexican cartels, notorious for their well-armed forces, boast arsenals that include Javelin missile launchers, armored vehicles, and ex-commandos. Their operational tactics have evolved to include social media platforms like Telegram and WhatsApp for coordination and intimidation, a strategy reminiscent of ISIS. These criminal organizations demonstrate a level of sophistication and are learning entities, taking cues from conflicts in Ukraine and Syria to enhance their drone capabilities.
The US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has historically utilized "kill lists" to target high-ranking operatives in similar situations. However, experts caution against a direct military incursion into Mexico, warning of severe repercussions. John P. Sullivan highlighted the potential dangers, noting that "The persistent talk of unilateral US military intervention in Mexico is dangerous." The complexity of targeting cartel leadership is further highlighted by Sullivan's assertion that while "kingpin" operations may be politically attractive, they are "operationally precarious."
Despite the allure of military might, the cost of previous interventions in similar conflicts has been astronomical, often resulting in civilian casualties. Airstrikes and raids could become a reality, but the implications are profound. Lucas Webber indicated, "There is certainly a possibility that airstrikes and raids could eventually occur," but warned that such actions might provoke cartels to retaliate against soft targets such as tourists or diplomatic figures.
The cartels' regional support and shadow-state-like operations pose additional challenges. Any aggressive actions may lead to retaliatory violence, potentially ensnaring regular Americans, including tourists in popular destinations like Cancun. Although cartels have been hesitant to engage directly with American law enforcement, they have not shied away from attacking Mexican officials and journalists.
The US government's historical entanglements with the cartels add another layer of complexity. Notably, American arms have previously ended up in cartel hands, complicating efforts for a clean military resolution. While there have been discussions about designating cartels as terrorist groups, it was not until President Trump officially did so that the conversation took on new urgency.
However, SOCOM officials have clarified that no troops are currently deployed in support of any such efforts. As emphasized by a Socom public affairs officer, “There are no SOCOM troops being deployed in support of this effort.” Nonetheless, discussions about mobilizing elite units against the cartels persist.
Lucas Webber encapsulates the chilling reality of cartel operations: "Cartels are using a number of social media platforms and messaging applications to build support, recruit and post gruesome executions to create a chill effect for journalists, politicians, informants, prosecutors and so on." Their sophisticated use of technology for psychological warfare underscores the difficulty of eradicating them through force alone.
The potential for blowback remains high. Evan Hafer remarked on the potential escalation, saying, "If we declare war on the cartel, these dudes are not going to understand what the fuck is going on. They are in for a world of ultra-violence." This sentiment captures both the unpredictability and severity that could follow any military action.