The United States' President, Donald Trump, has taken a bold step by signing an executive order to cut aid to South Africa. This decision comes amid accusations of "unjust and immoral practices" against the white minority Afrikaner community in South Africa. The executive order could have significant repercussions on South Africa's HIV/AIDS program, which heavily relies on the US Pepfar program, contributing approximately 17% of its funding. The Pepfar program provides around $440 million annually to South Africa, and the sudden withdrawal of this support raises concerns about the future of the country's healthcare initiatives.
President Trump accused South Africa of "confiscating land" and engaging in actions that are "perhaps far worse than that." These allegations are part of a broader narrative that has seen the relationship between the two nations fluctuate over the years. Although the US and South Africa have generally maintained friendly relations since the end of white-minority rule in 1994, recent tensions have caused a noticeable strain. The US has also threatened to cut future funding over alleged "terrible things, horrible things" attributed to South Africa's leadership.
"doing things that are perhaps far worse than that" – Donald Trump
In December 2023, South Africa filed a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), a move that has further complicated its international relations. Despite mounting pressure from the US, South Africa's Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola stated there is "no chance" the country would withdraw its case against Israel. This stance underscores South Africa's determination to pursue its foreign policy objectives, even at the cost of straining relations with powerful allies.
The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced his decision not to attend a G20 meeting of foreign ministers scheduled for next week in Johannesburg. This decision is seen as a diplomatic snub and adds to the tensions between the two countries. South Africa assumed the presidency of the G20 in December last year, viewing it as an opportunity to bolster its international standing. However, the growing rift with the US could undermine its efforts on this front.
"Over the years, that relationship has waxed and waned. It's never been terribly strong [since white-minority rule ended in South Africa]. But at the same time, I think it also never deteriorated quite as much as it has in recent years and I don't think it's South Africa's fault," – Donald MacKay
South Africa exports various minerals to the US, including platinum, iron, and manganese, under a preferential trade agreement known as Agoa. This agreement is up for review later this year, and there is speculation about whether it will be renewed. Experts believe that even if Agoa is not renewed or South Africa is excluded, businesses currently benefiting from it would suffer short-term losses but would manage to recover in a few years.
"Whatever the reason that Trump is upset with South Africa, at the moment Agoa would be the easiest mechanism to use to punish South Africa." – Donald MacKay
Amid these developments, President Trump has extended an offer to help refugees from the Afrikaner community settle in the US. This offer signals a shift in US policy towards South Africa and raises questions about the implications for bilateral relations.
"Those irritations get to accumulate and under President Trump… this is seen as an opportunity to put South Africa in its place." – Donald MacKay
The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with new competition driving up against the US. Dr. Van Heerden notes this changing dynamic, suggesting that South Africa's strategic importance could be leveraged by other global powers seeking influence in the region.
"new competition driving up against the US" – Dr Van Heerden
The potential fallout from these developments could have far-reaching implications for both countries. The loss of US aid could impact South Africa's healthcare sector significantly, particularly its HIV/AIDS program. Conversely, the deterioration of diplomatic ties could affect trade relations and economic growth prospects for both nations.