In a significant development, the United States and Cuba have reached a landmark agreement to release over 500 detainees, including high-profile figures such as Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and José Daniel Ferrer. This deal, brokered through the Vatican, aims to address the severe economic crisis that has driven more than 10% of Cuba's population to flee the country. By lifting certain sanctions on companies run by the Cuban military, the US hopes to stem Cuba's economic decline and curb the rising migration numbers. However, this move comes amidst Cuba's continued presence on the State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSOT) list, which impacts tourism—a crucial component of the island's economy.
Hunger, misery, and ill-health have become commonplace in Cuba due to its deteriorating economic situation. Since 2019, Cuba's GDP has plummeted by 12%, with further declines anticipated this year. Sanctions initially imposed by the Trump administration and maintained by President Biden have exacerbated the economic challenges facing the nation. The inclusion of Cuba on the SSOT list alongside North Korea, Iran, and Syria has further strained its economy by deterring tourists and investors.
The recent negotiations facilitated by the Vatican had an unexpected outcome. Cardinal Juan de la Caridad García Rodríguez, the archbishop of Havana, expressed surprise upon learning about the deal.
“I just found out when approached by a reporter.” – Cardinal Juan de la Caridad García Rodríguez
Despite this surprise, the agreement seeks to mitigate some of the socio-economic issues by suspending certain legal provisions. Notably, the US will suspend the law that allows Cuban Americans to sue for compensation for property confiscated during the Cuban revolution. This suspension, alongside the lifting of sanctions on military-run companies, is seen as a measure to relieve Cuba's economic distress.
The release of detainees marks a turning point in US-Cuba relations. Maykel González Vivero, one of those released, captured the sentiments of many who had been held.
“When I was in that cell I thought I would never get out. I prepared myself mentally,” – Maykel González Vivero
However, there remains cautious optimism regarding the broader implications of this diplomatic move. Michael Bustamante, an expert on US-Cuba relations, highlighted the significance of the detainee list.
“Who is on that list, who is ultimately released, is really important,” – Bustamante
He emphasized that the inclusion or exclusion of certain individuals could send powerful signals about future US-Cuba relations.
“All those people matter, of course, but whether Cuba includes some particularly high profile names will send a signal.” – Bustamante
The Biden administration's actions appear to be strategic in addressing both economic and migration issues.
“Biden’s moves are to stem the economic bleeding on the island and decrease migration numbers,” – Bustamante
However, Bustamante also noted that political dynamics could shift if former President Trump returns to power.
“And I think that’s the prism through which this White House increasingly came to see Cuba, and I think, honestly, that will be part of how the Trump White House sees it too.” – Bustamante
“It may just put an even bigger target on Cuba’s back for a Trump administration.” – Bustamante
The Cuban government has been keen to avoid branding these detainees as "political prisoners," insisting that they were convicted "in accordance with due process of crimes punishable by law." This stance underscores the complex nature of human rights issues within Cuba.
At least 13 people detained for protesting against the government were released on Wednesday as part of this broader agreement. Despite these releases, many Cubans remain concerned about ongoing economic hardships and political restrictions.