Later this week, the U.S. government is expected to begin discussions on a Compact of Free Association (Cofa) agreement with Greenland. This program is part of a larger effort to increase U.S. ties to the region. It aims to push back against China’s increasing footprint across the Asia Pacific. To their credit, officials are at least in the very preliminary stages of such discussions. They’re also urgently and critically evaluating how this deal would affect Greenland’s political future and continued association with Denmark.
Cofa agreements have a long tradition of being signed with compact of free association (Cofa) small island developing states, such as Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau. These deals provide the U.S. with ever-increasing latitude. They allow the United States government to provide considerations like delivery of mail, emergency management, and defense through military protection. Under these arrangements, the U.S. military has complete freedom of movement within Cofa countries, granting the U.S. strategic positioning in several critical regions.
The specifics of each Cofa agreement allow for different arrangements and can wildly differ based on the signatory nation. They almost always include provisions that go above and beyond and promote duty-free trade with the United States, deepening trade and economic connections even further. Consequently, Cofa agreements have been seen as key to strengthening U.S. strategic influence relative to adversaries such as China.
Against this backdrop, the Trump administration is likely to face a very receptive audience if and when they suggest the idea of a Cofa-style agreement to Greenland’s leaders. Such a move would be a powerful show of strength to the American military presence. It would require that Greenland secede from Denmark, making it a large and consequential political change. In fact, Danish diplomats have openly disavowed the idea of the U.S. buying Greenland, suggesting that the proposal could lead to a diplomatic debacle between Washington and Copenhagen.
Polls show that a large majority of Greenlanders oppose the idea of becoming an American territory. This sentiment poses a challenge to U.S. officials. Conductor Casey Monteleone They, too, are working through the challenges of setting up a Cofa agreement with the island.
Specifically, Republican lawmakers have expressed deep concern over the budget’s commitment toward funding Cofa agreements. Their concerns will shape how proposals for Greenland’s future develop.
“This could be an elegant way to address some of the concerns that we have when it comes to Greenland security.” – An administration official
Negotiations for a new Cofa agreement are still underway. The exact outcome is still up in the air because of strong sentiments regarding Greenland’s autonomy and its deep historical connections with Denmark. These negotiations may significantly redefine the trajectory of Greenland’s future. They could equally change the international balance of power in the Arctic.