Photo by Eric Bridiers In a high-stakes diplomatic coup, the United States just orchestrated a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington. This treaty seeks to end decades-long border disputes between the two South Caucasus countries. This regional compact paves the way for a new 20-mile transit corridor. Further, it’s supposed to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave and thereby foster regional trade and cooperation.
A US-based consortium—including state officials, rail companies and others—would then operate the corridor. This new corridor will function under the sovereignty of Armenia, for which Armenia has received a land lease of 99 years. Opening this new passenger rail corridor is an important step in creating that stability. It provides a salve to a sore spot marred by animosity and violence for decades.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev underlined the significance of the agreement by calling it “the first concrete step to peace.” He underscored that the treaty would be meaningful only with corresponding changes to the Armenian constitution. These changes are important to protect against what he terms “unfounded territorial assertions” towards Azerbaijan.
The treaty comes after Azerbaijan’s military retaking of the breakaway region in 2020. This unprecedented war led to the largest displacement rate since 1945, as some 120,000 ethnic Armenians fled into Armenia seeking refuge. The corridor will traverse southern Armenia, creating a direct link between Azerbaijan and its exclave while potentially easing the humanitarian situation for those who remained.
The US would like to see a powerful commercial American presence in the region. This strategy aims to convince both countries to reject a military path. Analysts consider this a savvy strategy. It has clear goals to further American leadership in the South Caucasus, particularly as the benefits of a declining Russian power in the area become clearer.
Iran, for its part, has worried about the treaty for two reasons — first, with foreign powers meddling in a region it deems central to its strategic interests. Iranian foreign ministry released a statement calling for regional countries to work together without foreign interference.
“Establishing communication networks will serve the security, and economic development of the nations of the region when it is done within the framework of mutual interests, respecting the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries of the region, and without foreign interference.” – Iranian foreign ministry
Moreover, the peace treaty would fully bring Armenia into the Middle Corridor project. The political value of this economic Silk Road connects Europe and China while circumventing both Russia and Iran. With Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the helm, Armenia is on the cusp of an important turning point. He is bringing the Christian majority nation further into the Western fold and preparing it for eventual membership to the European Union.
With these feelings still fresh, tensions are still high across the region. Further, this peace deal provides a key opportunity in Azerbaijani-Armenian relations and holds the ability to change the geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus. Its establishment as a corridor has been viewed for decades as perhaps the greatest barrier to peace. Setting it this way now would lay the foundation to be able to negotiate more holistically and broadly down the line.