The US housing market remains deep in the doldrums, mirroring an uncanny longevity of weakness that has hounded the market for more than 20 years. In fact, just this morning we learned existing home sales fell 2.7% in June. Annualized sales fell short at just 3.93 million, down from 4.04 million in May. These numbers are below the expected 4.01 million and add to fears over the market’s fragility.
In the past, whenever the housing market has been weak at some point. Specifically, it had a hard time early in the century and right before the onset of the global financial crisis. Even with the current situation, this is a continuation of that trend. The new numbers confirm sales volumes have yet to recover past the all-important four million floor, a point that has served as a hard bottom since late 2023. In fact, inventory/sales ratios are at the level last seen in 2011.
The unsold home ratio is frightening, now at a nine-year high. Today’s stock of unsold homes could fill roughly 4.7 months of sales at the current pace. Such an oversupply is telling us that the market has changed. Each additional home that now sits unsold means more uncertainty in the housing sector. Yet this sector continues to struggle to get its second wind.
Retail investors have a tough enough row to hoe. This bold claim is backed up by a surprising statistic that 77.37% of their retail investor accounts lose money trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) and Spread Betting with certain providers. This unusually high loss ratio indicates that a great number of people are having difficulty finding their way through today’s tumultuous market environment.
And on net the housing market remains weak. This fraught moment in time offers an opportunity to ask critical questions about the emerging new normal for real estate in America. Analysts and stakeholders across the country are watching closely to see what happens. Meanwhile, automakers are waiting to see if any additional recovery signs appear or if the pattern of waning sales continues.